SBS뉴스

● 부시(George W. Bush)氏 小差(소차)로 再選(재선)인가　



CNN이 豫測(예측)



共同通信(교도통신) 2004年8月28日 10:51



[워싱턴 27日 共同] 美 CNN TV는 8月27일, 全美各州(전미각주)의 世論調査結果(세론조사결과)[世論調査(세론조사)=輿論調査(여론조사)] 등을 獨自的(독자적)으로 分析(분석)한 結果(결과)로서, 大統領選擧(대통령선거)가 同日(동일) 행해졌을 경우, 부시(George W. Bush) 大統領(대통령)이 274명의 選擧人(선거인)을 獲得(획득)해서 勝利(승리)한다고 傳(전)했다.



美 主要(주요) 미디어(Media)가 具體的(구체적)인 獲得選擧人(획득선거인)의 數(수)를 明示(명시)해서, 選擧結果(선거결과)를 豫測(예측)한 것은 처음.



그러나, 當選(당선)에 必要(필요)한 270명을 不過(불과) 4명 上回(상회)하고 있는데 지나지 않아, 2000年의 前回選擧(전회선거) 같은 大接戰(대접전)이라고 하고 있다.



CNN에 의하면, 부시氏는 地盤(지반)인 南部(남부) 등에서 支持(지지)를 굳히고 있는 것 외에, 激戰州(격전주) 가운데 오하이오(Ohio)·플로리다(Florida) 등에서 小差(소차)로 리드(Lead).



民主黨大統領候補(민주당대통령후보) 케리(John F. Kerry) 上院議員(상원의원)은 出身地(출신지)인 東部(동부) 외에, 激戰州에서는 펜실베니아(Pennsylvania)·아이오와(Iowa) 등에서 優勢(우세)하게 되어 있어, 全美(전미)에서 264명의 選擧人獲得(선거인획득)이 豫測된다



http://flash24.kyodo.co.jp/?MID=SBS&PG=STORY&NGID=intl&NWID=2004082801000946





▶ CNN: Bush holds slight lead in Electoral College



Tight race in some states



From John Mercurio and Molly Levinson



CNN Political Unit



Friday, August 27, 2004 Posted: 6:46 PM EDT (2246 GMT)



NEW YORK (CNN) -- President Bush heads into the Republican

National Convention next week with a small lead over

Democratic challenger John Kerry in the all-important

Electoral College, according to a new CNN analysis of state

polling, advertising buys and interviews with campaign

strategists and neutral analysts.



Bush would receive 274 electoral votes to Kerry's 264 if the

election were held today, less than 10 weeks before November

2 and three days before the opening of the GOP convention in

Madison Square Garden. If Kerry were to pick up a state as

small as Nevada, the electoral vote would be tied, throwing

the election into the House of Representatives.



CNN's political unit compiled the electoral map after

reviewing state polls and conducting extensive interviews

with pollsters from both campaigns, as well as local

political reporters, strategists and consultants.



The map bears a remarkable resemblance to the results of the

2000 election, in which Bush defeated Al Gore by just five

electoral votes and lost the popular vote. Bush remains

strong in the South, the prairie and mountain states. Kerry

leads in his native Northeast and on the West Coast. The two

candidates continue to battle evenly in industrial Midwest

states.



Bush is carrying every state he carried four years ago --

except New Hampshire, which has four electoral votes.



In New Hampshire, which Bush won by 7,211 votes four years

ago, Kerry, a native of adjacent Massachusetts, is

benefiting from high name recognition and the widespread

coverage he received during the state's primaries.



Kerry won the primary in January after scoring a come-from-

behind victory over former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean in the

Iowa caucuses one week earlier.



About a dozen states remain extremely competitive and are

widely considered too close to call. Leading that list are

Ohio, Florida, Nevada and Missouri, where Bush holds a

narrow lead, as well as Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and

Pennsylvania, which now lean toward Kerry.



West Virginia and Arizona are also competitive, but

Democrats concede that those state now fall into the Bush

column. Likewise, Oregon and Washington state could

ultimately back either candidate, but Kerry is currently

building a strong base of support in the Pacific Northwest.



The race in Ohio remains extremely fluid, and both campaigns

remain highly organized in the Buckeye State. All four

principals -- and most of their wives -- have campaigned

there at least once over the past two weeks.



The state's industrial base has been hard hit by job losses

and, Democrats say, voters have grown disenchanted with the

Republicans' control of both state and federal government.

These days, Republican Gov. Bob Taft's approval rating

hovers near or below 40 percent.



"That's what you have in Taft and what people are seeing

nationally -- a very strongly negative feeling there about

the Republican Party," a Democratic strategist said.



Republicans concede that Columbus, Ohio, a normally

Republican area, is trending more Democratic. Also,

Cincinnati has not been performing as well for Republicans

as it has in the past.



In Florida, Bush is aided by one of the nation's strongest

economies and best job markets. He also has a strong

surrogate in his brother, Republican Gov. Jeb Bush, who won

re-election by 13 points two years ago and remains highly

popular.



Bush-Cheney aides say the Bush brothers help each other with

different demographics: The governor does better among

younger voters, the president performs better among older

voters.



Democrats say they're focusing on turnout in Miami-Dade

County, a party stronghold that contains nearly one-fifth of

the state's population and where Gore-Lieberman failed to

generate a strong turnout four years ago.



The CNN survey reveals some interesting trends as the

campaign nears the crucial Labor Day checkpoint.



For example, less than two months after Kerry chose Sen.

John Edwards of North Carolina as his running mate in part

to challenge Bush's lock on the South, his campaign has made

few inroads into any state south of the Mason-Dixon Line.



Kerry last month pulled TV ads his campaign was running in

Arkansas, Virginia and Louisiana, and strategists now

concede they have little chance of carrying those states.

Part of Kerry's problem, aides say, has been a failure to

generate support among a large segment of the African-

American vote, particularly in states like Louisiana.



The one exception to this trend is North Carolina, which has

voted for the GOP presidential nominee every year since

1964. Bush still leads there, aided by a strong base of

social conservatives. But Kerry's selection of Edwards has

helped him cut into Bush's lead.



http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/08/27/bush.electoral/index.html









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