Harvard Projects 96% Chance Democrats Win House, 78% Win Senate in Midterms

Harvard University has projected a 96 percent chance for the Democratic Party to win the House of Representatives and a 78 percent chance to win the Senate in the upcoming midterm elections.

According to Harvard's election model on November 3 local time, the probability of the Democrats reclaiming the majority in the midterms is estimated at 96 percent, with predictions that they could secure up to 242 seats out of the 436.

Harvard remarked that "the possibility of the Republicans winning the House is equivalent to rolling a 20 on a 20-sided die," adding that "this election is a typical midterm where the governing party loses seats."

The probability of a Democratic victory in the Senate stood at 78 percent.

Harvard projected that the Democrats would become the majority party by taking 53 seats out of the 100 in the Senate.

Among the seven battleground Senate races, Texas, Ohio, Kansas, and Alaska were classified as "leaning Democratic," while South Carolina and Nebraska were viewed as "leaning Republican."

Iowa remains a toss-up, according to Harvard's analysis.

Some observers are even forecasting that the Democrats could go beyond a "blue wave" to trigger a "blue tsunami" of a landslide victory.

Election forecasting expert Nate Silver projected that a blue tsunami is possible based on opinion poll results released by The New York Times (NYT) on November 1 ahead of the election.

The NYT poll analyzed that Democrats hold the advantage in six out of the seven battleground Senate races.

Aside from Iowa, where candidates from both parties are tied, Democratic candidates are leading in Texas, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, Alaska, and Michigan.

If these survey results materialize, the Democrats could successfully net a gain of four or more seats in the Senate and recapture the majority.

Silver is a figure who gained nationwide attention after correctly predicting the winners of 49 out of 50 states in the 2008 presidential election.

While projections that the Democrats would reclaim the House majority have been raised early on, attention is now focused on how wide of a margin the Democrats will achieve in their victory.

Midterm elections typically serve as a referendum on the ruling party.

Voter evaluations in this midterm election are expected to focus on high inflation triggered by the war in Iran, a tariff war that spares no allies, and hardline immigration policies.

(Photo: AP, Yonhap News)
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.