Bill Gates, 'AI Skeptic,' Warns Next 20 Years Will Bring Humanity's Greatest Upheaval

Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, who has repeatedly emphasized the side effects of artificial intelligence, has forecasted that AI will replace nearly all human roles, making the next 20 years the most turbulent period in history.

In an interview with The Observer, a sister publication of the UK's Guardian, on October 25 (local time), Gates emphasized that AI is an "evolutionary event," calling it a generational shift for life on Earth comparable to the evolution from monkeys to humans.

He explained that the "definition of the smartest entity is being rewritten," noting that humans are no longer the most intelligent beings on Earth and that AI is taking over that position.

He added that thanks to AI, mathematicians would likely enjoy a golden age for the next five years or so, but declared that at some point within the next 20 years, "AI will surpass humans in mathematics, biology, and engineering design. We are at a very dramatic point in history."

He even confessed that he, a pioneer of the IT industry, has already fallen behind AI.

"Around the end of last year, I realized that my coding skills, which I've been obsessed with since I was 13, have essentially become useless," Gates said, adding that humans can no longer be the world's best coders.

He also reiterated his forecast that AI will replace almost all human roles in the labor sector.

"Humanoids will replace human physical labor, office work, and even the skills of invention," he pointed out, addressing the situation humans will face as they lose labor.

Appearing on the podcast Decoder on the same day, Gates predicted that while AI will create true abundance, the upcoming 20 years will be "the most turbulent period in human history."

"My biggest concern is the 20-year transition period, where winners and losers are sorted out and massive chaos ensues," he warned. "For most goods and services, human labor will not be needed at all."

At the same time, he urged politicians to think ahead, noting that activities such as art, sports, cooking, and childcare could remain uniquely human domains even if AI performs them better.

"If AI tells me, 'I'm better than you, so go play pickleball. I'll handle this and get back to you later,' that is not something we can just brush off with a laugh," Gates added.
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.