From War in Iran to 'Super El Niño': Global Food Price Surge Feared

Concerns are rising over a potential surge in global food prices as the impact of a 'super El Niño' phenomenon compounds the rising costs of agricultural production driven by soaring energy prices following the war in Iran.

El Niño is a phenomenon that causes significant climate changes, such as heatwaves and floods across the globe, as sea surface temperatures near the equator rise above historical averages.

In a report released last month, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) stated that the El Niño phenomenon has already begun this year, and there is a 63 percent chance it will develop into a 'super El Niño,' where tropical Pacific sea temperatures are more than 2 degrees Celsius higher than average.

The British daily The Guardian reported that economists have warned that this year's super El Niño could deal a severe shock to global food prices, with the potential for the phenomenon to persist until 2028.

According to Goldman Sachs analysts, global food prices are projected to surge by 15.8 percent this year due to the super El Niño.

Because the sowing, cultivation, and harvest periods differ by crop, the trend of rising food prices is expected to continue until the second half of 2028.

Goldman Sachs analyzed that India, the world's largest rice producer, is already feeling the effects of El Niño.

Although the monsoon (rainy) season has begun in India, some regions are recording only 25 percent of their historical average rainfall, and parts of central India are seeing precipitation levels at only about 50 percent of the historical average.

This could affect the supply of rice, wheat, and sugarcane produced in India, potentially causing repercussions worldwide.

UniCredit, an Italian bank, also estimated that the super El Niño phenomenon could lead to a 14.3 percent decline in global agricultural production, resulting in production losses of 342 billion dollars (approximately 513 trillion won).

UniCredit stated, "Prices across key commodities could rise by 10 to 50 percent," adding, "In particular, prices for rice, palm oil, sugar, and coffee could surge by 50 to over 100 percent."

Economic experts assessed that households around the world may face greater financial hardship due to the super El Niño.

The analysis suggests that the combination of rising energy prices and the blow to agricultural production caused by the super El Niño will further exacerbate economic difficulties.

The Guardian cited the situation in India between 1876 and 1878 as an example of how El Niño has impacted crop harvests and food supply chains in the past.

At that time, deadly droughts caused by El Niño occurred in countries including India, China, South Africa, Brazil, and Egypt.

In India, where conditions were already poor due to colonial rule, approximately 6 million people died from famine caused by the drought.

(Photo: AP, Yonhap News)
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.