One in 10 Adults Aged 65 and Older Expected to Have Dementia by 2040

Projections indicate that by 2040, more than one in 10 elderly South Koreans aged 65 and older will suffer from dementia.

According to the Ministry of Health and Welfare on September 6, calculations based on the National Statistics Office's future population projections and the national dementia epidemiological survey estimate that the dementia prevalence rate among South Koreans aged 65 and older will reach 10.34% by 2040.

The dementia prevalence rate fell from 9.17% in 2020 to 9.09% last year, but is expected to rise again, resulting in one out of every 10 people having dementia by 2040.

The prevalence rate is projected to climb further, hitting 11.81% (2.23 million out of a total 18.91 million people) by 2050.

Along with the rising number of dementia patients, medical expenses are also on an upward trend.

According to the National Health Insurance Service's National Health Insurance Research Institute, medical expenses for dementia among individuals aged 40 and older first surpassed 1 trillion won in 2012 (115.57 billion won), then climbed to the 2 trillion won range in 2016 (208.9 billion won) and the 3 trillion won range in 2020 (304.15 billion won).

The figure grew to 333.72 billion won in 2023, marking a 141.4% surge compared to a decade ago in 2013.

The increase in medical expenses was more pronounced among elderly women.

As of 2023, male dementia medical expenses stood at 37.79 billion won for those in their 80s and 10.08 billion won for those aged 90 and older, with older adults aged 80 and above accounting for 52% of the total.

For women, expenses reached 130.41 billion won for those in their 80s and 68.39 billion won for those aged 90 and older, with these two age groups making up 82% of the total.

Medical costs are expected to increase further due to rapid population aging.

According to projections by the National Health Insurance Research Institute based on predictive models for dementia incidence and mortality risk, total medical expenses are projected to reach a minimum of approximately 3.7 trillion won to a maximum of 4.4 trillion won by 2030, depending on the scenario.

The research team explained, "The number of people with dementia will continue to grow, reaching 1.3 to 1.5 times the 2023 level by 2030," adding, "Older adults aged 80 and above will account for more than half of all patients, and the proportion of women is expected to remain at around 65%."
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.