Russia-Ukraine Clashes Paralyze Grain Exports... Global Wheat Prices Up About 30% YoY

Intensifying clashes between Russia and Ukraine around the Black Sea region have practically paralyzed both countries' grain export capacities, sending global wheat prices soaring by about 30% compared to the previous year.

According to an analysis by Reuters on the 21st (local time), the export capacities of both nations have plummeted by more than 97% compared to last year's grain export season.

This analysis is based on the average monthly grain handling capacity of export ports.

Currently, no grain loading is taking place at Ukraine's Black Sea terminals.

In Russia, the only export facility not officially closed is a small terminal in the Tuapse region.

The grain handling capacity of this facility is about 160,000 tons per month.

During last year's grain export season, both countries exported an average of 7.2 million tons of grain per month through terminals in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov regions.

An official from the Kazakh Grain Union, which exports grain through Russian ports, stated, "Commercial vessel operations in the Black Sea are currently virtually paralyzed."

Major grain terminals in Novorossiysk, Russia, have all recently closed their doors due to Ukrainian drone attacks.

Russia's largest grain terminals, such as KSK and the Taman terminal, have also suspended both grain intake and exports.

Experts project that Russia's wheat exports this month will amount to only 1.8 million tons.

This marks the lowest level for the same month since 2010.

Export ports concentrated near the port of Odesa in Ukraine have already been shut down since last month.

Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi stated that as of mid-month, the number of incoming vessels stood at zero.

Since the beginning of this month, export-bound grain shipments have plunged by 76% compared to the same period last year.

While both countries are experiencing economic difficulties due to disruptions in grain exports, it is expected to deal a severe blow particularly to Ukraine, which has a heavy agricultural dependency.

Ukraine earns more than half of its foreign currency revenue from agricultural exports.

Ukraine is reportedly recently proposed to Russia that they mutually halt attacks on civilian targets in the Black Sea, but Russia dismissed the possibility of a ceasefire.

As the export disruptions between the two countries continue, global wheat prices have risen to levels about 30% higher than a year ago.

Russia is the world's largest major wheat exporter, while Ukraine ranks among the top five globally.

Due to the increasingly intense clashes between the two sides, concerns over high grain prices are expected to persist for the time being.

Russia, which persistently struck the port of Odesa, has been expanding its scope of attacks to the entire southern region since last week, including the Danube River port of Izmail, which serves as an alternative export port.

This is interpreted as a strategy to thoroughly blockade alternative grain transport routes, including railways and roads.

Overnight, Russia attacked checkpoints near the Moldova border in the Odesa region for the second consecutive day, halting vehicle traffic in the area.

Ukraine also stated that it attacked Russian Black Sea coastal regions overnight.

Targets also included an oil refinery in the Perm region, located 1,600 kilometers from the border, and a military airfield in the Volgograd region.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated on social media that day, "Ukrainian attacks damaged a Russian Su-34 fighter jet and drone storage and launch facilities."

(Photo: AP, Yonhap News)
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.