US Intelligence Concludes Airstrikes Cannot Change Iran's Stance, CNN Reports

While US President Donald Trump has escalated his threats, US intelligence agencies have concluded that airstrikes alone will not change Iran's negotiating stance, CNN reported on the 23rd, local time.

CNN cited two US officials familiar with the matter, stating that both the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) have assessed the situation this way.

Alex Vatanka, an Iran analyst at the Middle East Institute (MEI), a US think tank, diagnosed that "Iran has shown the courage to endure economic and military pain based on the belief that it can outlast President Trump's resolve."

It is true that Iran has suffered considerable damage from US and Israeli attacks.

However, it has also proven that Iran's asymmetrical attacks targeting energy infrastructure in Gulf nations and blockading the Strait of Hormuz have dealt a heavy blow to the global economy.

In addition, Yemen's Iran-friendly Houthi movement has declared a blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the entrance of the Red Sea, laterally supporting Iran's hardline stance against the US.

CNN pointed out that an endless tit-for-tat exchange of strikes with Iran is likely to result in additional US casualties and plunge the Strait of Hormuz into a state of chronic crisis similar to the "forever wars" criticized by President Trump.

MEI analyst Vatanka explained, however, that "those opposed to diplomacy [with the US] hold the fundamental notion that the US does not keep its promises," adding, "While they may not be the ones currently leading Iran and might not like Trump or the US, they believe [negotiations are] better than enduring an indefinite war."

This implies that the Iranian leadership does not want a "forever war" either.

Regarding the US-Israel airstrike operations against Iran, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that Iran is rapidly repairing the damage.

Citing satellite image analyses by Israeli and Western officials on the 23rd, the outlet reported that Iran has swiftly restored infrastructure damaged by bombings, ranging from missile bases deep in the mountains to bridges, ports, and manufacturing facilities.

The recovery pace was reportedly so fast that it has caused concern among some Israeli officials.

For instance, in March, two tunnel entrances and access roads at a missile base in Kangavar, western Iran, were destroyed in airstrikes, but they were cleared and reopened in just a few weeks, and collapsed bridges were restored within days.

Tzvika Haimovich, former commander of the Israel Air Force Aerial Defense Division, assessed that "Iran has replenished its [missile] stockpiles" and possesses "very impressive industrialization and reconstruction capabilities."

In the case of missile bases, because airstrike operations focused on collapsing entrances to block access rather than completely destroying the bases themselves, weapons stored inside remained intact, leaving Iran only needing to excavate the entrances.

Critics also noted that although the US and Israel targeted facilities producing components used to assemble new missiles and drones, Iran had already sufficiently stockpiled components underground.

The WSJ pointed out that rapid recovery efforts across Iran have weakened the basis for claims by President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that they have inflicted devastating blows on Iran.

Meanwhile, UN Secretary-General António Guterres posted on X, appealing, "The situation in the Middle East is spiraling out of control. It is time to step back."

(Photo: Provided by US Navy/Central Command, AP, Yonhap News)
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.