▲ Ships in the Strait of Hormuz
Reports indicate that Iran's economy is being pushed to the brink of suffocation as U.S. maritime blockade operations cut off its crude oil export routes.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 7th (local time), citing shipping data firm Kpler, that not a single drop of Iranian crude oil has crossed the blockade line since the U.S. resumed its maritime blockade in July.
Last month, Iran loaded 255,000 barrels of crude oil per day onto vessels within the Persian Gulf, but this volume remains trapped and unable to cross the blockade line.
The crude oil volume that was shipped outside the blockade line when the Strait of Hormuz was temporarily opened following the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to end the war between the U.S. and Iran last June has practically served as their sole funding source, but even this is now running out.
Currently, only about 29 million barrels of Iranian crude oil remain loaded on vessels outside the blockade line.
Kpler estimated that with around 1 million barrels per day heading to destinations such as China, the remaining volume will likely be exhausted by the middle of next month.
Furthermore, as the U.S. targets banks dealing with Iran through an "economic bullying campaign," recovering payments for oil already sold has become increasingly difficult.
Crude oil exports are Iran's primary source of revenue.
Roughly one-third of Iran's national budget is funded by crude oil sales, and the military finances, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that effectively controls Iran, also rely heavily on oil revenues.
With oil exports blocked under these circumstances, the Iranian economy—already shattered before the outbreak of the war—is being driven to the verge of collapse.
As the value of the rial plummets and import prices rise, inflation is deepening.
The official inflation rate exceeds 80%, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Iran's economy will contract by 5.4% this year.
This marks the worst level since the 1980s.
However, Gulf officials and experts assess that the likelihood of Iran surrendering under this economic pressure is virtually slim.
Instead, they warn that intense pressure could provoke retaliatory actions from Iran.
Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), diagnosed, "U.S. sanctions will have a significant impact on ordinary Iranian households, but I am skeptical as to whether this will force Iran to capitulate at the negotiating table. The Iranian regime is more likely to resist."
Capital Economics economist Hamad Hussain stated, "Much depends on the level of economic pain the Iranian regime is willing to endure to achieve its military and geopolitical objectives."
(Photo: Getty Images)
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