▲ Kim Byung-yeon, a researcher (director) at NH Investment & Securities, presents an analysis and outlook for the domestic stock market during a press conference held at the Korea Exchange in Yeouido, Seoul, on July 20.
An assessment has been made that even if all the negative factors currently discussed in the stock market are taken into account, it is difficult for the KOSPI index to fall below the 6,000 level.
During a press conference held at the Korea Exchange in Yeouido, Seoul, on July 20, Kim Byung-yeon, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, stated, "It is still too early to discuss the so-called 'peak out' regarding the semiconductor sector."
Kim said, "We are currently seeing a convergence of concerns, including the semiconductor peak-out theory, issues related to AI models from China, and geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran," adding, "In the current situation, a forward price-to-book ratio (PBR) of 1.3 to 1.4 times is the appropriate 'rock bottom,' which translates to 6,000 points for the KOSPI index."
He also predicted, "Rather than lingering at the bottom, the KOSPI is expected to show a gradual recovery as we determine whether the growth rate of big tech revenue is solid starting next week."
Kim added, "However, since there are investors who entered at the peak and are currently holding positions, profit-taking could realistically emerge once the index crosses the mid-8,000 range."
Kim emphasized that while the daily average export growth rate for semiconductors may slow down and converge toward zero next year, the actual semiconductor export value itself has jumped to over 2 billion dollars on a daily average basis, noting that the "level itself has changed" compared to the past when it was at the 700 to 800 million dollar level.
"The KOSPI recorded a net profit of 217 trillion won last year, became a market earning 759 trillion won this year, and is set to become a market earning 1 quadrillion won next year; would it really return to 217 trillion won?" Kim asked.
In particular, he assessed that despite the recent global semiconductor adjustment, the risk of capital expenditure (CapEx) cuts by hyperscalers (operators of ultra-large data centers) is limited, and it is unlikely that investment cuts will be announced in the upcoming second-quarter earnings reports.
Kim estimated that the scale of AI infrastructure capital expenditure planned by the five hyperscalers—Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, and Oracle—will reach 758 billion dollars this year, a sharp increase of 82.3% from the previous year.
Regarding the recent application of Long-Term Agreements (LTA) by SK Hynix, he said, "In a way, talk that the contracts were made at low prices fueled concerns about a semiconductor peak-out," but emphasized that "the LTA will confirm the stability of mid-to-long-term earnings."
He also expected that the large-scale net selling trend by foreigners, which has been weighing on the domestic stock market, will subside.
The analysis suggests that as the foreign ownership ratio in the KOSPI semiconductor sector has fallen to its lowest level, the pressure for net selling will gradually ease.
Kim said, "The current negative factors are quite similar to what we experienced in March and April," adding, "The situation is similar to when the Iran war and the semiconductor peak-out controversy sparked by TurboQuant were raised, and it is necessary to recall the learning effect from that time."
(Photo: Yonhap News)
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