KOR
▲ Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz, which had been blocked for four months, is set to reopen as the United States signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran to extend the ceasefire by 60 days.
However, outlooks suggest that crude oil shipments passing through the strait are unlikely to return to pre-war levels.
Foreign media outlets, including Bloomberg, reported on a study by investment bank Goldman Sachs regarding the matter.
Goldman Sachs projected that even after the war ends, crude oil shipments through the strait will remain at only 70 percent of pre-war levels.
The report was even titled, "70% of Pre-War Hormuz Traffic Will Become the New 100%."
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), an average of approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil per day passed through the strait before the war.
In contrast, the currently visible traffic volume is only about 1.3 million barrels per day.
Even when adding the 1.6 million barrels from "dark voyages"—ships passing through the Gulf of Oman with their location transponders turned off—the total falls far short of previous levels.
For shipping volumes to fully normalize, an additional 13 million barrels per day must be recovered.
However, Goldman Sachs assessed that a full recovery is virtually impossible.
The primary reason is that alternative transport routes developed by oil-producing nations during the war have already established themselves.
Saudi Arabia's state-owned company, Aramco, has raised the utilization rate of its East-West Pipeline leading to the Red Sea port of Yanbu to its maximum capacity.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has also actively utilized pipeline connections to the Port of Fujairah, located outside the Strait of Hormuz.
Iraq has also diverted a large portion of its export volume to the pipeline heading to the Port of Ceyhan in Türkiye.
The volume of crude oil bypassed through these alternative routes alone reaches 7.5 million barrels per day.
The "escape from Hormuz" by major oil-producing nations appears to be solidifying into a structural shift rather than a temporary, one-off response.
Indeed, earlier this month, the UAE officially announced plans to expand coastal ports along the Gulf of Oman and build new harbors.
The initiative aims to completely eliminate dependence on the Strait of Hormuz.
Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi, UAE Minister of State for Foreign Trade, declared, "Regardless of whether the strait is open or not, we are moving toward zero dependence."
He added, "We will not stop our plans to secure new alternative transport routes."
Even Kuwait, which lacks its own bypass pipeline, has entered negotiations through its state-run petroleum corporation to share facilities with Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Goldman Sachs predicted that crude oil transport volumes would increase to some extent by the end of next month due to the ceasefire agreement.
It also analyzed that crude oil production in the Gulf region is expected to show a recovery around October this year.
However, variables remain.
There is a significant possibility that efforts to clear sea mines, which Iran may have deployed during the war, will face difficulties.
Another obstacle is that Iran approved a draft bill in April to mandate transit permits and collect tolls on vessels.
Goldman Sachs pointed out that some shipowners may still be reluctant to enter the strait due to safety concerns.
The war, which lasted for 107 days, has left scars far beyond simple physical damage.
The strategic status of the Strait of Hormuz, which once accounted for 20 percent of global oil shipments, is being shaken to its core.
Oil-producing nations, having experienced Iran's blockade of the strait, have diversified their transport routes, a trend that is expected to continue even after the war ends.
As experts predict, an era where "70 percent of pre-war levels becomes the new 100 percent" is fast approaching.
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.
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