80% of MLB Players Expect Lockout After This Season in Survey

Major League Baseball (MLB) players anticipate a high likelihood that team owners will initiate a lockout following the conclusion of this season due to a breakdown in labor negotiations.

According to the results of an annual survey of MLB players released today (June 19) by the U.S. online sports media outlet The Athletic, 80 out of 101 respondents from 23 teams—or 80%—predicted a lockout after the season.

Only two respondents said there was no possibility of a lockout, while 19 others who were unaware of the details of the new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) currently being negotiated behind the scenes between the MLB office and the players' union responded that they did not know.

MLB management and the players' union are currently engaged in a tug-of-war over a new agreement to replace the current one, which is set to expire on December 2.

The MLB office, representing the 30 clubs, is strongly pushing for the introduction of a salary cap. In opposition, the players' union has countered with a proposal for a minimum team payroll, which would impose fines on clubs that do not spend a certain amount on player salaries.

MLB has experienced multiple player strikes and owner-initiated lockouts due to conflicts between labor and management.

There have been five strikes and four lockouts in the league's history.

The worst-case scenario for either a strike or a lockout is the cancellation of games, which causes massive financial losses for both players and clubs.

Club revenues vanish, and players do not receive their salaries.

The most recent case occurred on December 2, 2021, when the MLB office implemented a lockout after failing to reach an agreement on a new CBA.

MLB labor and management lifted the lockout on March 11, 2022, 99 days later, after reaching an agreement on a new contract.

While the fallout prevented teams from playing a full slate of spring training games, they managed to avoid game cancellations by delaying the start of the regular season to April 8, ensuring all 162 games per team were played.

However, compared to four years ago, when the sides clashed over luxury tax thresholds, postseason formats, and minimum wages, the current issue of introducing a salary cap—which is directly linked to player salaries—carries much more weight and has a higher potential for conflict.

Among the four major North American professional sports leagues, MLB is the only one that does not currently implement a salary cap.

Given that MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred viewed the off-season lockout four years ago as a lever to reach a new agreement, the probability of another lockout is considered high.

During a lockout, players cannot participate in team events during the off-season, nor can they train at team facilities.

The Athletic reported that while the majority of players are optimistic that regular-season games will not be canceled even if a lockout occurs—similar to four years ago—it also shared the concerns of an anonymous player who predicted, "Since Commissioner Manfred has decided to retire in 2029 before the next CBA, he will likely view the introduction of a salary cap as his final mission."

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※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.