Is a 'Post-Hormuz' Era Beginning? Goldman Sachs Predicts Oil Transit to Reach 70% of Pre-War Levels

Although the United States and Iran have agreed to end their conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, projections suggest that oil shipments passing through the strait will only recover to about 70% of pre-war levels.

Analysts attribute this to a fundamental restructuring of the region's energy logistics map, as Middle Eastern oil-producing nations actively developed alternative transport routes to bypass the strait during the conflict.

Global investment bank Goldman Sachs released a report on June 17 (local time) titled, "70% of Pre-War Hormuz Transit Will Be the New 100%."

Goldman Sachs expects the increase in oil shipments following the ceasefire agreement to be completed by the end of next month, with oil production in the Gulf region projected to recover by around October.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily before the war.

Goldman Sachs analyzed that for oil exports from Gulf nations to normalize to pre-war levels, an additional 13 million barrels per day would need to be added to current transit volumes.

According to the bank's analysis, the current visible volume of oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz is only about 1.3 million barrels per day.

Even when adding the 1.6 million barrels of "dark fleet" shipments—vessels that pass through the Gulf of Oman with their lights and Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) turned off—the total remains far below pre-war levels.

Conversely, oil diverted through alternative routes—such as the Saudi port of Yanbu, the UAE's Fujairah, and Turkey's Ceyhan—has reached a total of 7.5 million barrels per day.

This shift is the result of Middle Eastern oil producers accelerating their "exit from Hormuz" in the wake of the war.

Major Middle Eastern oil-producing nations, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Iraq, significantly expanded the use of infrastructure that avoids the Strait of Hormuz—which was effectively blockaded by Iran during the hostilities between the U.S., Israel, and Iran—to transport their oil.

Saudi Arabia's state-owned oil company, Aramco, increased capacity on its East-West pipeline to send oil to the Red Sea coast, while the UAE actively utilized pipelines connected to the port of Fujairah, located outside the Strait of Hormuz.

Iraq also diverted its export volume through pipelines connected to the Turkish port of Ceyhan.

Earlier this month, the UAE announced an ambitious plan to completely eliminate its dependence on the Strait of Hormuz by extensively expanding ports along the Gulf of Oman coast and constructing new port facilities outside the strait.

Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi, the UAE Minister of State for Foreign Trade, stated, "We are moving toward 'zero' dependence, regardless of whether the Strait of Hormuz is open or not," adding, "While we hope for the swift reopening of the strait, we will not stop our new diversification plans regardless of that."

Goldman Sachs noted that even after the agreement between the U.S. and Iran, some shipowners may remain reluctant to send vessels through the Strait of Hormuz due to safety concerns.
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.