KOR
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Projections suggest that Iran could generate over $60 billion (approximately 91.5 trillion won) in annual oil revenue.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on June 17 (local time) that if Iran's crude oil export restrictions are lifted in phases under the memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the United States and Iran, the Iranian economy could enter an "oil money era."
According to the MOU, the U.S. will permit Iran's exports of crude oil and fuel, and will lift sanctions on Iran if a final agreement is reached.
Before the war, Iran accounted for approximately 4% of global crude oil production.
Based on pre-war production levels and current international oil prices, the WSJ analyzes that Iran's annual revenue from crude oil sales could exceed $60 billion.
Iran's crude oil production cost is between $10 and $30 per barrel, which is significantly lower than the $60 to $70 break-even point for U.S. shale companies.
Experts predict that if sanctions are fully lifted and foreign capital and technology flow in, Iran could increase its daily production by more than 1 million barrels within the next 2 to 3 years.
Iran, which produced 5 million to 6 million barrels per day before the 1979 Islamic Revolution, has seen its production capacity significantly diminished due to war, sanctions, and a lack of investment.
If this agreement becomes a reality, significant changes are expected in the global crude oil market.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that if Iranian crude oil supply resumes in earnest and the Strait of Hormuz is normalized, global crude oil supply could significantly outpace the rate of demand growth in the future.
Some also raise concerns that the influx of large-scale funds could strengthen the Iranian regime's foundation of power and be used to rebuild its military capabilities.
In this regard, the U.S. government maintains that the easing of sanctions on Iran is not an unconditional measure.
A senior official stated that the permission for crude oil exports and the easing of financial sanctions will only be maintained if Iran fulfills the agreed-upon terms regarding its nuclear program and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
The Donald Trump administration expects that economic incentives will serve as a deterrent against Iran's nuclear development and regional destabilizing activities.
(Photo: AP, Yonhap News)
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.
