Agreement Text Not Yet Released... Already a Tug-of-War Over 'Free vs. Toll' Hormuz Passage

Although the United States and Iran have announced an agreement to end the war, differences in their positions over major issues, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, are already emerging just a day later.

Although the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) scheduled for June 19 (local time) has bought 60 days for follow-up negotiations, concerns are rising that these differences could remain a trigger and potentially reignite physical conflict.

The US and Iran announced on June 14 (US Eastern Time) that they had agreed to sign the MOU and completed electronic signatures by top officials, including US President Donald Trump, but they have not released the text of the agreement.

As a result, confusion continues over the details of the agreement between the US and Iran.

This is because, with the text undisclosed, the details of the agreement must be guessed based on the explanations provided by both sides.

For now, what both the US and Iran commonly acknowledge is that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened and the US blockade on Iran will be lifted as soon as the end-of-war MOU is signed.

The issue is whether merchant ships will be able to pass freely through the Strait of Hormuz without paying separate fees, as was the case before the war.

President Trump visited France on June 15 and, during a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron, stated that there would be no toll for passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

This repeated his claim made in an interview with The New York Times (NYT) the previous day that tolls for the Strait of Hormuz would ultimately be permanently waived.

However, Iran's semi-official Fars News Agency reported that Iran's right to collect transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz had been recognized.

This suggests that free passage for ships will be allowed only for 60 days after the MOU is signed, after which fees can be charged.

A senior US official also acknowledged during a briefing that the MOU specifies "60 days of free passage through Hormuz," admitting that follow-up discussions with Iran are needed regarding what to do after the 60 days expire.

Ultimately, this means that if the differences are not resolved within the 60 days, the Strait of Hormuz could become a "toll waterway" through Iran's unilateral imposition of fees.

President Trump's remarks that there would be no toll for the Strait of Hormuz seem to reflect a hope to persuade Iran in that direction if possible, but it remains uncertain whether Iran, having confirmed the powerful "leverage" of the Strait of Hormuz during the war, will readily cooperate.

It has also been pointed out that opinions within the US are divided regarding when the Strait of Hormuz will be fully reopened.

While President Trump stated that the Strait of Hormuz is currently partially open and will fully reopen on June 19, a senior US official projected during a briefing that although there would be a significant increase in traffic, normalization within two weeks would be difficult.

The differences in positions between the two sides have also become clearly visible regarding the issue of releasing frozen assets immediately after the announcement of the agreement.

Iran maintains the position that a portion of the frozen assets must be released simultaneously with the signing of the MOU.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said in an interview that the 60-day negotiations following the signing of the MOU depend on the US fulfilling three promises, mentioning the lifting of the naval blockade, the termination of military operations, and the release of frozen assets.

Iran's frozen assets are estimated to be worth $100 billion.

Iranian media have floated a plan to release $12 billion in frozen assets upon the signing of the MOU, and another $12 billion during the 60-day negotiation period.

The US has made it clear that it cannot release the frozen assets in conjunction with the signing of the MOU.

The US position is that the release of frozen assets and sanctions relief are linked to the scope and implementation of Iran's nuclear abandonment.

Perhaps because it is immediately after the conclusion of the MOU, both the US and Iran currently appear to be engaged in a low-intensity war of nerves, merely reaffirming their respective positions.

However, if Iran insists on the "prior release of frozen assets," the MOU could be pushed into a crisis from the very beginning.

Even if follow-up negotiations begin after many twists and turns, it remains doubtful whether the nuclear negotiations, which are piled high with major issues, and the negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz transit fees can proceed smoothly.

If even the MOU, a low-level agreement with no legal binding force, is not properly implemented, expectations that meaningful results will be derived and implemented during the 60-day nuclear negotiations are bound to weaken further.
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.