Yemeni Rebels Target Government's Northern Stronghold of Marib, Raising Fears of All-Out War

Following their securing of control over the Red Sea coastline, the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen are expanding their offensive toward Marib Province in the central region, a key resource hub and the largest stronghold of the Yemeni government forces, as well as Taiz Province, a vital transportation hub in the south.

Concerns are growing that the Yemeni civil war, which had remained relatively quiet since the 2002 truce agreement, could escalate into an all-out war.

Experts warn that this could turn into a major fire rather than a lingering ember stemming from the war involving Iran.

Since abruptly seizing the capital Sanaa in 2014, the Houthis have controlled most of the northwestern region, but they have failed to capture Marib Province.

Yemeni expert Mohammed Al-Basha told The New York Times (NYT) on the 17th (local time) that "Marib Province is the northernmost bastion of the government forces that has resisted the rebel coup," adding that "if captured by the Houthis, it would be an enormous symbolic and strategic victory for them."

Marib Province is concentrated with Yemen's largest oil and gas fields, and its fall would strip the internationally recognized Yemeni government of its economic lifeline.

This could lead not only to the loss of the government's legitimacy but also to a humanitarian crisis triggering a refugee crisis involving millions of people.

Experts believe that if Marib Province falls, it will open the path toward Hadramawt Province, the largest eastern province sharing a long border with Saudi Arabia, posing a direct threat to Saudi national security.

There are also forecasts that the division of Yemen, which is effectively split into north and south, will become entrenched, efforts to ease tensions with Saudi Arabia will go up in smoke, and instability in Red Sea logistics and volatility in the global energy market could further escalate.

The Houthis are simultaneously targeting Taiz Province.

Taiz Province is a strategic stronghold through which a key highway runs, connecting Houthi-controlled areas and Aden, the temporary capital of the government.

The Houthis appear to be aiming to cut off government forces' logistics and movement routes by blockading Taiz Province.

As the battlefield intensifies, armed clashes between the two sides are also growing fiercer.

The Houthis recently claimed to have shot down a Saudi F-15 fighter jet with a locally made missile over Marib Province and released footage of the wreckage.

In response, Saudi forces launched about 30 airstrikes against rebel positions and communication facilities in Taiz Province, Hajjah Province, and elsewhere.

During this process, a Yemeni national was killed in the southern Saudi region of Taif by shrapnel from a intercepted Houthi drone.

This is the first confirmed fatality inside Saudi territory since the Houthis stepped up attacks across the Saudi border.

Fighting has also spread to inland fronts in Yemen such as Al-Jawf and Al-Bayda.

The Houthis are known to be engaged in fierce ground combat with government forces around the Al-Rabanat military base in Al-Jawf, a Saudi border region, following their control of areas near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the entrance to the Red Sea.

Experts analyze the Houthis' current offensive as a strategic foothold to achieve economic self-reliance through resource acquisition and to seize the initiative in Middle Eastern affairs.

This is because securing oil resources in Marib Province would reduce external dependency while directly threatening the Saudi border to gain an overwhelming advantage at the negotiating table.

Meanwhile, Yemeni government forces have seen their morale plummet and internal divisions deepen following their defeat on the western coastal front.

April Longley Alley, a senior analyst at the Washington Institute, told the NYT that "the Houthis currently have the wind at their backs" and diagnosed that "government forces are extremely fractured."

Saudi Arabia has also fallen into a dilemma.

With the failure to oust the Houthis despite 12 years of military intervention, critics point out that air power alone is insufficient to reverse the ground combat dynamics.

Saudi Arabia's security burden has further increased as the Houthis resumed ballistic missile and drone attacks targeting major facilities in southern Saudi Arabia.

This effectively leaves the country facing a "double pressure" of having to guard against even the risk of Iranian airstrikes.

(Photo: Yonhap News)
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.