"Take Air Force One to Pyongyang"... Stunned? Wait, Is Something Really Brewing?

00:00 Intro
00:07 "Signs of US-North Korea Dialogue Exist"… What Is Really Happening?
01:26 Will Trump Go to Pyongyang? US Presidents Who Almost Went to Pyongyang
02:39 Trump Said "Let's Go to Pyongyang on Air Force One"… But Isn't the Iran War Tangled Up?
04:04 Dialogue Without Preconditions vs. Dialogue With Preconditions

Hello, I am Kim Ayeong from the SBS Foreign Affairs and National Security Team. Today, let's start with the National Intelligence Service's briefing to the National Assembly on the 1st.

1. "Signs of US-North Korea Dialogue Exist"… What Is Really Happening?
Let's first look at the briefing given to reporters by Representative Yoon Gun-young, the main opposition Democratic Party's secretary who received the NIS briefing. "We believe a US-North Korea summit is possible at any time, and there are signs of dialogue." Because President Trump has continuously posted photos of the US-North Korea summit and unilaterally scaled down the South Korea-US joint military exercises—which North Korea dislikes—almost as if notifying us, it drew interest: "Wait, is something really brewing?" If there are truly signs, Trump's love calls would become an entirely different story. So, I checked the briefing details closely, and there was a precondition attached to this. No specific facts regarding contacts have been confirmed. What does it mean to say there are signs of dialogue when no facts are confirmed? I spoke with committee members who attended the briefing. They explained that while contacts are still unconfirmed, it was meant to imply that there are circumstances showing North Korea is interested in US-North Korea dialogue. To sum up the situation: we cannot say with 100% certainty that the US and North Korea are not moving behind the scenes without the NIS knowing, but when North Korea makes a move with actions, such trends are usually shared to a significant extent. That is not prominently showing. However, North Korea also appears to be keeping its radar sharply focused on President Trump's recent moves.

2. Will Trump Go to Pyongyang? US Presidents Who Almost Went to Pyongyang
You may remember John Bolton, who served as White House National Security Advisor during the first Trump administration. He forecasted that if a US-North Korea summit takes place, only one scenario remains. Since Trump held the Panmunjom DMZ meeting in 2019, he said Trump would likely try to visit Pyongyang this time. Among all US presidents, none have set foot in North Korea while in office. There were cases of visiting after leaving office. Former President Jimmy Carter visited Pyongyang in 1994, and former President Bill Clinton in 2009, meeting Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il, respectively. There were also cases that didn't materialize but came right up to the verge of a visit to the North. This refers to 2000 during President Bill Clinton's term. At the time, resolving the missile issue with North Korea was the main point of contention. Then US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright visited Pyongyang in October 2000 to coordinate a summit within the year, but this ultimately did not work out well. As it happened, Middle East peace negotiations between Israel and Palestine were on the verge of being reached, and Clinton chose to resolve the Middle East issue over the North Korea issue.

3. Trump Said "Let's Go to Pyongyang on Air Force One"… But Isn't the Iran War Tangled Up?
Will President Trump really try to go to Pyongyang, as Bolton suggests? Trump actually offered to take his presidential aircraft together to Pyongyang after the Hanoi no-deal. Chairman Kim Jong-un declined at the time, but White House security lines were turned upside down. Therefore, setting foot in Pyongyang as a US president seems to be a much less complicated matter in Trump's mind than one might think. If we bring in and consider the situation from when Clinton's visit to the North was discussed in 2000, priority was contested between the Middle East issue and the North Korea issue at the time. Even now, the Iran war shows little sign of ending, so the Middle East and North Korea issues remain intertwined in a similar way. President Trump is struggling to pull himself out of the quagmire of the Iran war. It can also be said that the reduced joint drills were influenced by the circumstances of US military forces heavily committed to the Middle East. If there is anything vastly different from that time, it is the leadership's inclination in determining priorities. Unlike Clinton, who ultimately chose the Middle East issue to concentrate diplomatic resources, today's Trump is different. It is interpreted that Trump judges meetings with Kim Jong-un to still be useful for pushing criticisms about the Iran war out of the headlines. This means he is aiming for an effect of dispersion rather than concentration.

4. Dialogue Without Preconditions vs. Dialogue With Preconditions
A tug-of-war is underway between the US and North Korea to resume dialogue. It is still an off-site war of words. The White House stated on the 1st, local time, that "President Trump remains open to talking with Kim Jong-un without any preconditions." There was no mention of denuclearization. Let's talk without conditions—this sounds like a fairly conciliatory message, but from North Korea's current perspective, it probably isn't such a pleasant message either. This is because what North Korea is demanding is dialogue with preconditions. Chairman Kim Jong-un laid down preconditions for improving relations with the US during the 9th Party Congress last February: first, that the US respect his status enshrined in the constitution, the so-called nuclear-weapons state status; and second, that it withdraw its hostile policy toward North Korea. The basket named hostile policy toward North Korea is quite fluid in size. Joint exercises, human rights issues, and sanctions against the North could all be included here. To recap: Trump says let's meet and talk since we won't talk about denuclearization anyway; while North Korea's stance is that not mentioning denuclearization is a given, and plus alpha should be shown to demonstrate sincerity. There is a difference between these positions, and how this gap is narrowed is expected to be a major point in gauging the possibility of full-scale US-North Korea dialogue. Trump had pressured Kim Jong-un in Hanoi with Yongbyon plus alpha, but somehow the offense and defense seem to have reversed now?

(Reported by Kim Ayeong, Produced by Shin Hee-suk, Video Reporting by Lee Byung-joo, Video Editing by Seo Byung-wook, Design by Yang Hye-min, Production: SBS Digital News)
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.