Global Elderly Population Outpaces Young Children for First Time in Human History; South Korea Projected to Be Oldest Nation by 2060

For the first time in human history, the global population aged 65 and older has surpassed the number of young children aged 5 and younger.

South Korea is projected to become the world's oldest country by 2060.

According to a report titled "An Aging World: 2025" released by the U.S. Census Bureau on the 3rd (local time), the global elderly population stood at 852 million last year, accounting for 10.5% of the total population of 8.132 billion.

This means that more than 1 out of every 10 people on Earth is elderly.

The elderly population has also overtaken children aged 5 and younger, whose share has shrunk to less than 10% of humanity.

The report noted that "this is the first time in human history that the population rankings of the youngest and oldest age groups have flipped," adding that "the gap is expected to widen rapidly in the coming years."

The elderly population is projected to grow to 2 billion by 2060, surging to 19.6% of the total population, while the share of young children is expected to shrink further to 7% – 8%.

A key driver of this aging trend is that fertility rates have become entrenched below the replacement level—the 2.1 children per couple required to maintain population size.

As of 2023, more than 71% of the world's population lived in countries with fertility rates at or below the replacement level.

This represents a sharp 26 percentage point increase in just a decade from 45% in 2013, a pace much faster than demographers had previously predicted.

In particular, the fertility rates of China and India, the world's most populous nations, have also fallen below 2.1, with Bangladesh, Mexico, Vietnam, and others showing similar patterns.

The report projected that South Korea's elderly population share stood at 20.3% last year, ranking 22nd in the world, but will more than double to 41% by 2060, surpassing current front-runner Japan to become the nation with the highest proportion of older adults globally.

The share of the super-aged population aged 80 and older is also expected to nearly quadruple from 4.8% last year to 18.3% in 2060, making it the third-highest globally behind Monaco (27.1%) and Japan (19.4%).

Consequently, the median age—the age that divides a population into two numerically equal halves—is set to rise from 46 years old last year to 52.8 years by 2040, and reach 59.2 years by 2060.

Accordingly, the old-age dependency ratio, which represents the number of elderly dependents per 100 people of working age (15 – 64), will skyrocket from 29.5 last year to 81.6 in 2060.

This is about 2.5 times the projected global average old-age dependency ratio of 32.1 in 2060, pointing to a structure where 1.2 working-age individuals must support one older adult.

In particular, South Korea's elderly poverty rate hit 40.5% as of 2020, the highest among Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) member countries, where the average hovers around 20% or lower.

The report attributed South Korea's unusually high poverty rate to the late introduction of the national pension system, insufficient pension coverage and benefit levels, increasing life expectancy, and early retirement driven by seniority-based wage systems.

However, the OECD recently reported in a separate report that South Korea's elderly poverty rate had entered the 30% range at 39.7%.

Meanwhile, the U.S. population aged 65 and older is projected to increase from 18.9% last year to 23.4% in 2060, but its ranking in the aging country index is expected to drop significantly from 48th to 110th due to the faster aging pace of other nations.

Andrew Scott, a professor at London Business School who participated in writing the report, pointed out that "demographic shifts require societies to rethink older populations not as a social cost, but as an economic asset."

(Photo: Yonhap News)
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.