Massive Disaster Puts China's Global Influence to the Test, Raising Questions Over Belt and Road

A massive flood that caused enormous casualties in the Himalayan mountainous border region between China and Nepal has raised questions over whether China is demonstrating leadership befitting its advancing scientific and technological capabilities.

Observations suggest that the tsunami-scale disaster has put to the test China's strategy of strengthening relations with developing countries through the Belt and Road Initiative (its land and maritime Silk Road connecting China, Central Asia, and Europe).

For Nepal, the crisis serves as an opportunity to verify whether it receives decisive help in a critical moment from its large neighbor, China, which has steadily expanded its influence in the country through strengthened trade relations over the years.

The Wall Street Journal reported on September 2 (local time) that China's current handling of the situation shows it is acutely aware of the watchful eyes of other nations it has long sought to court.

The disaster, which resulted in a death and missing toll approaching several thousands, prompted suspicions in some parts of Nepal over whether China could have issued warnings beforehand.

Additionally, some Nepali media raised questions over whether China-linked infrastructure projects contributed to the devastating flood.

The Chinese government has been actively moving to dispel these doubts.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry and the Chinese Embassy in Nepal emphasized that they are making strenuous efforts to share information with Nepal.

Despite being busy handling damage in its own Tibet region, China dispatched relief supplies and rescue teams to Nepal.

These gestures by China are interpreted as a deliberate move driven by the awareness that its role is under scrutiny in a disaster that has drawn global attention.

Allen Carlson, an associate professor at Cornell University and an expert on Chinese foreign policy, pointed out, "The issue of rebuilding infrastructure is not just about responding to this flood. Broadly speaking, it has become a test of whether being a participant in the Belt and Road actually holds value when problems arise."

Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013, a China-led foreign infrastructure and economic cooperation initiative aimed at expanding global influence.

Nepal joined the Belt and Road Initiative in 2017.

For China, strengthening ties with Nepal was a way to counter the influence of its rival, India, and stabilize the border in Tibet, a region the Chinese government has long struggled to tightly control.

The Gyirong Port in Tibet, completely overwhelmed by debris flows during the catastrophic Nepal floods, serves as a border gateway between Nepal and China and has symbolized their increasingly close bilateral ties.

Until right before the disaster, the Gyirong Port was reportedly busy with trucks carrying new electric vehicles and various consumer goods into Nepal.

According to official Chinese statistics, bilateral trade volume doubled from 1.1 billion dollars (approx. 1.5 trillion won) in 2018 to 2.2 billion dollars (approx. 3 trillion won) in 2024.

The vast majority of the trade volume consisted of China's exports to Nepal.

Plans were also in place for railways and power grids—part of the Belt and Road projects—to pass through the Gyirong Port.

Amid such expanding exchanges between the two countries, a glacial lake outburst in the Tibet region in July of last year also caused floods and casualties in Nepal, prompting demands from the Nepali side for an information-sharing system with China.

However, an official bilateral system to manage disasters in the Himalayan mountainous region has yet to be established.

This reality, exposed while China portrays itself as a leading nation among the Global South (emerging and developing countries located mainly in the Southern Hemisphere), casts doubt on China's leadership.

At the same time, some projections emerged that as the U.S. administration under Donald Trump appears to step back from climate crisis-related agendas, China could seize the leadership in this field alongside India.

Anil Pokhrel, former chief executive of Nepal's National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority, said, "Utilizing satellite-based observation is most effective for disaster warnings, and China is the best in this field. They possess such capabilities."

He added, "Considering the U.S. government stepping back from the climate change discourse, China and India, right next door to Nepal, can exercise global leadership."

(Photo: AP, Yonhap News)
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.