"Trump's Economic War on Iran Signals No Desire for Military Action"

The Donald Trump administration's announcement of massive economic pressure on Iran signals a significantly lower likelihood of resuming military operations, according to analyses.

The strategy shift follows months of heavy munitions expenditure over the past six months without securing Iran's surrender, alongside mounting anti-war sentiment within the U.S. and the approach of mid-term elections.

However, experts point out that the success of this "economic war" remains uncertain, as Iran is already well aware of these domestic American vulnerabilities and it remains questionable whether Washington can secure China's cooperation.

The New York Times (NYT) reported on the 20th local time that President Trump's declaration of an "economic D-Day" against Iran a day prior signals that he will not immediately resume military action.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also announced plans to unveil the economic pressure campaign against Iran on the 24th, pressing allies to join and urging China's cooperation.

Secretary Bessent particularly stated that the regime in Iran would be collapsed through economic sanctions, while also sending a message that large-scale military operations would be put on hold for a while.

The NYT analyzed that the Trump administration's pivot to economic offense stems from Iran's persistent resistance and retaliation.

Over the past six months, Iran has not only weathered U.S. and Israeli airstrikes but has also pressured the U.S. through various means, including attacking commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

During this period, international oil prices have surged, U.S. military bases in the Middle East have suffered serious damage, and the number of U.S. military casualties has risen.

Furthermore, U.S. stockpiles of munitions are running low, yet there is neither an agreement to end the war nor any sign of a breakthrough to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

This implies that after pushing for military action for months without achieving desired outcomes, and with anti-war sentiment spreading even within the Republican Party, President Trump had little choice but to make the political choice of economic sanctions instead of airstrikes.

Additionally, the Trump administration's naval blockade has already dealt a severe blow to Iran's economy, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—which previously served as Iran's financial hub—has announced a halt to all trade and financial transactions with Iran, likely serving as another motivation for choosing economic sanctions.

China's cooperation is absolute for the U.S. plan to succeed.

China is Iran's largest trading partner, purchasing the vast majority of Iranian crude oil.

Mead Maleki, a senior research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies who previously handled Iran sanctions at the U.S. Treasury Department, pointed out that "there is no alternative country that can absorb Iranian crude oil on a large scale like China," making China an indispensable core of the economic pressure campaign against Iran.

Edward Fishman, a senior research fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), also noted, "Iran has already faced comprehensive sanctions for years. The main task left is to aggressively target Iran's trade partners, above all, China."

However, experts remain pessimistic about the possibility of China's cooperation, and anticipate that President Trump will also have to maintain a cautious stance on pressuring Beijing ahead of his summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in September.

Fishman noted, "It is questionable whether President Trump is willing to risk triggering an economic war with China right now."

Another problem cited is that Iran sees right through these internal U.S. circumstances.

With President Trump facing intense pressure from mid-term elections amid anti-war sentiment, Iran could perceive these American weaknesses and launch counterattacks if subjected to financial pressure.

Middle East expert Dennis Ross analyzed that Iran now believes President Trump does not want to escalate military tensions any further, which paradoxically serves as a factor that could lead Iran to ramp up tensions.

Criticizing the Trump administration's lack of a long-term strategy, Ross remarked regarding the U.S. approach to Iran, "It completely fails to show any ability to look beyond the immediate situation at hand."
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.