Shocking U.S. Simulation Concludes "U.S. Military Would Lose"

The Heritage Foundation, a prominent conservative U.S. think tank known for serving as a policy brain for the Trump administration, has expressed deep concern over the U.S. military's shortage of interceptor missile stockpiles, warning that it could face strategic defeat in a conflict with China.

Jim Paine, a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, recently published a report titled "Regional Missile Defense Inventories: Insufficient for a U.S.-China Conflict."

The report diagnosed that "the U.S. tactical missile defense architecture is insufficient to sustain operations in a protracted, high-intensity conflict with China," adding that "at current levels, the Chinese People's Liberation Army could neutralize key U.S. military installations, such as Andersen Air Force Base in Guam, within the first few days of a conflict."

The Heritage Foundation is the think tank that published "Project 2025," a policy proposal compiling governance agendas for the next administration with the potential return of President Trump in mind during the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

While other U.S. media outlets have previously addressed the issue of the U.S. military's depleted missile inventories, this report reveals that the conservative think tank also views the situation with grave concern.

In particular, the report analyzed that the stockpiles of U.S. interceptor missiles—including Patriot, THAAD, SM-6 (often called the "Patriot of the sea"), and SM-3—account for less than 10 percent of the quantities required to deter or win a conflict with China.

It further projected that "even if China targets U.S. bases using only a fraction of its own missile inventory, the United States would exhaust all of its interceptor missiles within a matter of days."

The Heritage Foundation stated that it arrived at these projections through simulations based on scenarios such as the U.S. military's interception of Iranian missiles during the war with Iran, alongside estimated figures of missile stockpiles held by Chinese and U.S. forces.

Citing remarks by former Indo-Pacific Command Chief Phil Davidson regarding the possibility of a U.S.-China conflict erupting in 2027, the report emphasized that "time is running out to resolve the shortage of interceptor missiles."
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