US Intelligence: Russia Could Attack NATO Member States in Coming Years

US intelligence agencies have assessed that Russia may engage in limited military actions against NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) member states within the next few years.

The Wall Street Journal reported this, citing US government officials on the 6th local time, noting that there is an increasing number of signs that Russia is testing NATO's unity and resolve to respond.

Examples cited as attempts to test NATO's response include instances where Russian drones entered Romanian airspace and Russian cruise missiles landed in Poland.

Until now, the US had assessed that as long as the war in Ukraine continued, Russia would not provoke NATO member states.

However, officials stated that this assessment has shifted since the beginning of this year.

With the Russian military and oil industry suffering heavy damage from Ukrainian drone attacks and a lack of significant progress on the front lines, President Vladimir Putin is reportedly facing pressure domestically to secure a victory.

Officials indicated that the more cornered President Putin feels, the more likely he is to take dangerous actions.

Intelligence agencies are reviewing possibilities such as cyberattacks against NATO member states, territorial occupations by disguised armed groups, and limited ground incursions into NATO's eastern flank.

In particular, intelligence assessments suggest that such scenarios could materialize between the fall of this year and 2029.

While the likelihood of a limited ground incursion is low, the risk is analyzed to grow over time.

A variable noted for cyberattacks or hybrid warfare is that it remains unclear whether Article 5 of the NATO treaty, the collective defense clause, would apply.

The collective defense clause stipulates that an armed attack against one member state shall be considered an attack against all member states, requiring each to take necessary support measures.

However, experts explain that it is ambiguous whether Article 5 applies to cyberattacks or hybrid warfare.

Heather Conley, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), pointed out that "so far, NATO member states have chosen to avoid escalation."

Meanwhile, the US government is reportedly concerned about a decline in stockpiles of core weapons needed in the event of a conflict with Russia or China.

Due to support for Ukraine and conflicts involving Iran, inventories of Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM), ATACMS, Stinger surface-to-air missiles, and Patriot interceptor missiles have reportedly decreased.

However, Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell emphasized that "claims of ammunition shortages are not true," adding that "the US military maintains sufficient forces to execute all of the president's strategic objectives."

(Photo: AP, Yonhap News)
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.