U.S.-Iran Trapped in Cycle of 'Retaliation and Revenge,' Closer to All-Out War

The conflict between the United States and Iran is intensifying, taking on the pattern of a vicious cycle of retaliation and revenge.

Amid observations that the resumption of all-out war is imminent, the Middle East situation has become increasingly unstable as both sides cross each other's red lines.

The Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on ending the war between the two countries began to erode when Iran insisted on controlling the Strait of Hormuz, using a drone to attack a merchant ship passing through the area on June 25 (local time), and the U.S. launched an airstrike on Iran the following day.

An "eye-for-an-eye" series of retaliatory strikes followed.

On July 7, after Iran again opened fire on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. Central Command launched an airstrike on Iran, calling it "punishment."

Sporadic attacks and counterattacks have continued since then.

On July 12, when a ceasefire agreement that was reportedly being discussed behind the scenes fell apart at the last minute, Iran declared the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

In response, the U.S. conducted airstrikes on Iran for eight consecutive days.

Iran, not to be outdone, attacked U.S. military bases across the Middle East.

The deaths and disappearances of three U.S. service members at a base in Jordan on July 17 added fuel to the spreading fire.

It was recorded as the first U.S. military death since the ceasefire and the first instance of U.S. troops being killed by a direct attack from Iran.

While it is true that Iran has already suffered far more casualties, the U.S. deaths are drawing attention because they increase the possibility that the U.S., which holds military superiority, will lean toward war rather than negotiations.

The U.S. Central Command stated the previous day that the airstrikes were "to swiftly punish the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) that attacked U.S. service members."

It is reasonable to analyze that the term "punishment" used by the U.S. military carries a sense of outrage.

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth vowed in a post on social media, "Their sacrifice will only strengthen our resolve."

As both countries are trapped in this cycle of retaliatory attacks, The New York Times (NYT) reported on July 19 that "the rest of the MOU has completely crumbled," and CNN stated definitively that "the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran has effectively collapsed."

Consequently, concerns are being raised in the U.S. media that "the possibility of a return to all-out war is growing" (Associated Press) and that "the U.S. and Iran are closer to a larger war" (NYT).

In particular, it is suggested that if all-out war resumes, unlike the early stages of the conflict, it could unfold in a way that inflicts fatal damage on civilian facilities rather than remaining limited to military targets.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) predicted that President Donald Trump's "restraint is being tested," adding that it "could trigger a cycle of escalation."

The Associated Press noted that the U.S. and Iran are "crossing each other's red lines."

In fact, since the U.S. and Iran entered the phase of a "vicious cycle of escalation," it has been reported that the U.S. has struck Iranian infrastructure considered civilian, such as bridges and desalination plants.

President Trump has threatened to attack not only bridges but also power plants if Iran does not reach an agreement this week.

With it being difficult to expect Iran to return to the negotiating table at this point, this is a warning of a hardline strategy involving a total halt to electricity and water supplies.

Iran is also crossing red lines.

It has targeted desalination facilities while attacking U.S. allies in the water-scarce Middle East.

It also warned that civilian merchant ships that do not comply with its control will not be safe in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran has expanded its scope of attacks to virtually the entire Middle East, including Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, Bahrain, as well as Oman, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq.

It is also prepared to attempt to block the Red Sea shipping lane by mobilizing its proxy force, the Houthi rebels.

There is also the possibility that the U.S. will respond by seizing Kharg Island, Iran's economic lifeline, or by supporting Kurdish rebels to conduct ground warfare.

In this case, the war is expected to enter an entirely new phase.

The Associated Press assessed that if the U.S. attempts to seize islands around the Strait of Hormuz or Kharg Island, as suggested by President Trump, it would require greater naval power and tens of thousands of ground troops.

The WSJ analyzed that one of the reasons both sides, which had previously refrained from resuming all-out war, are no longer hesitating to use force is the diplomatic aspect of trying to break the deadlock in ceasefire negotiations.

However, it diagnosed that in this process, it is inevitable that the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil supply passes, will be blocked again, pushing oil inventories to dangerous levels and driving oil prices to an uncontrollable level.
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.