KOSPI Report That Predicted Market Downturn Gains Attention as "Must-Visit" Post

With the KOSPI recently experiencing a sharp decline, a brokerage report that predicted this trend two months ago is drawing significant attention.

However, the analyst behind the report has now offered a new perspective, suggesting that the current KOSPI index is at a low point, as semiconductor net profit estimates remain steady.

Lee Jae-man, head of the Global Investment Analysis Department at Hana Securities, previously stated in a report released in May that the end of the bull market would occur when "the market capitalization of SK Hynix, whose 2026–2027 net profit estimate is smaller than that of Samsung Electronics, surpasses that of Samsung Electronics."

He viewed the moment Hynix overtakes Samsung Electronics as the market peak, citing the case of March 2000, when Cisco Systems, a telecommunications network equipment company, surpassed Microsoft and GE to become the number one company by market cap in the S&P 500 at the height of the dot-com bubble.

Indeed, the Nasdaq index began a sharp decline shortly after that event.

As Lee predicted, the KOSPI index hit a peak of 9,114.55 on June 22, the day SK Hynix's market cap first surpassed that of Samsung Electronics. Since then, as of July 9, the KOSPI has entered a correction phase, falling 20% to 7,291.91.

Some investors have revisited the report, referring to it as a "must-visit" site for its accurate prediction.

In a recently released report, Lee expressed his view that the current KOSPI is at a low level.

He stated, "Since 2023, the maximum decline of the KOSPI from its previous peak to its low has been -20%. Applying this to the recent peak (9,114p), the low point is 7,290p," adding that the index is currently at a level where a rebound is possible.

He also projected that if the KOSPI rebounds, it could potentially reach over 11,000p.

Lee also dismissed recent concerns regarding reduced AI investment by U.S. big tech companies and the debate over whether the semiconductor market has peaked as premature.

He noted that the year-on-year investment growth rate of big tech companies is expected to rise from 81% in the first quarter of 2026 to 90% in the third quarter.

However, he forecasted that "starting from the third quarter of 2027, when the capital expenditure growth rate falls below the revenue growth rate, concerns that investment has passed its peak will likely be highlighted."

He also projected that while semiconductor profits will increase through this year, they may begin to decline starting next year.

He identified oil prices and interest rates as future variables, explaining that high interest rates and high oil prices could increase the cost of capital for big tech companies, potentially dampening AI investment.

Lee stated, "It is too early to reflect concerns about U.S. hyperscalers like Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta passing their investment peak and recovering funds at this point," adding, "As the 12-month expected operating profits for both Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are rising compared to both the previous year and the previous month, it is judged that the KOSPI has undergone an excessive correction."

Reported by Kim Minjeong | Video by Lee Da-in | Graphics by Yang Hye-min | Produced by SBS Digital News
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.