Strait of Hormuz Becomes a Powder Keg Again; Cease-fire MOU at Risk Amid Three Days of Clashes

As large-scale military clashes between the United States and Iran continued for the third consecutive day on July 9 (local time), concerns are mounting that the cease-fire regime, which was reached with great difficulty last month, may be on the verge of collapse.

The control of the Strait of Hormuz, which was not clearly defined in the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to end hostilities, appears to be the primary trigger destabilizing the cease-fire.

However, it is reported that back-channel negotiations are continuing, with both sides avoiding an escalation into all-out war.

Iran's state-run IRNA news agency reported on the evening of July 9 that areas surrounding the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant in the south were struck by projectiles from the U.S. and Israel. The agency also reported that a naval base in Konarak, Sistan and Baluchestan Province in southeastern Iran, was hit by airstrikes from fighter jets.

There has been no official statement from the U.S. military regarding these airstrikes.

Previously, the U.S. Central Command stated on X (formerly Twitter) on July 8 that it had struck approximately 90 Iranian military targets, including air defense systems, coastal surveillance assets, missile and drone storage facilities, naval assets, and military logistics infrastructure along the Iranian coastline, and released footage of the strikes.

On July 7, the U.S. had also struck over 80 targets, including air defense networks on Iran's southern coast and small vessels belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Following the continued U.S. military operations, Iran launched extensive retaliatory airstrikes targeting U.S. military bases across the Middle East. After attacking U.S. bases in the Gulf region, including those in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar, Iran expanded the scope of its retaliation on July 9 by firing 10 ballistic missiles at a U.S. military base in Jordan.

The prevailing analysis is that this tit-for-tat confrontation stems from conflicting interpretations of Article 5 of the MOU. This clause states that Iran will take necessary measures to resume transit through the Strait of Hormuz, which was blockaded during the conflict.

While Iran maintains that this clause recognizes its exclusive control over the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. argues that Iran has failed in its obligation to ensure safe navigation by attacking merchant vessels.

As the U.S. and Iran exchange large-scale airstrikes for the third day, analysts suggest that the cease-fire MOU, which took effect on June 18, has effectively lost its functionality.

Bloomberg assessed that while the MOU aimed to cease all hostilities, ease sanctions on Iran, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, none of these goals have been fully achieved.

Brett Erickson, CEO of the risk advisory firm Obsidian Risk Advisors, analyzed that the U.S. decision to reinstate sanctions on Iranian crude oil weakened some of the leverage the U.S. held in negotiations, stating, "The MOU in its current form is effectively dead."

However, there are expectations that the possibility of an immediate escalation into all-out war remains low, given that back-channel diplomatic efforts by mediators such as Qatar and Pakistan are continuing.

Regarding reports that areas around the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant were hit by projectiles on the evening of July 9, a U.S. official told CNN that "the U.S. military was not conducting any airstrikes." An Israeli official also stated that they were unaware of any Israeli involvement in the attacks within Iran, leaving the identity of the party behind the strikes on the two Iranian locations unconfirmed.

Another U.S. official, who requested anonymity, told Bloomberg that so-called working-level discussions are ongoing and that the U.S. is working to find a solution with Iran.

Mona Yacoubian, vice president of the Middle East and North Africa Center at the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP), noted that "the MOU is gradually unraveling," but predicted that "it will not collapse entirely as neither side wants to return to all-out war."

Meanwhile, as the first implementation step of the U.S.-mediated Israel-Lebanon agreement, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from a "pilot zone" in southern Lebanon and the transfer of control to the Lebanese Armed Forces are expected to begin within days.

According to AFP, a U.S. official stated, "We have entered the implementation phase of the (Israel-Lebanon agreement) framework," adding that "the first pilot zone will begin operating within a few days, and work is underway to establish and plan for additional pilot zones."

(Photo: Yonhap News)
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.