The Athletic: South Korea Has 94% Chance of Reaching Round of 32… Subject to Change Based on Other Group Results

What are the chances for the South Korean national football team, which finished third in its group at the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America, to advance to the Round of 32?

As of today (the 25th), with all group stage matches for Groups A through C concluded, the probability of South Korea advancing to the Round of 32 is relatively high at 94%.

However, this probability will fluctuate daily as the final group stage matches for the remaining nine groups, D through L, are yet to be played.

According to the "Third-Place Tracker" by the U.S. online sports media outlet The Athletic, Bosnia and Herzegovina, the third-place team in Group B, is currently in first place, while South Korea is positioned fourth.

This ranking also reflects the current third-place teams of groups that have not yet played their third group stage match.

In this tournament, featuring a record-high 48 participating nations divided into 12 groups, the top two teams from each group, along with the eight best third-place teams, will advance to the Round of 32.

The ranking of third-place teams is determined by points, followed by goal difference, goals scored, fair play points, and the latest FIFA ranking, in that order.

Bosnia and Herzegovina, the third-place team in Group B with one win, one draw, and one loss (4 points, -1 goal difference, 5 goals scored), has already secured its spot in the Round of 32.

South Korea finished with one win and two losses (3 points, -1 goal difference, 2 goals scored).

Scotland, the third-place team in Group C, sits in 7th place, below South Korea, with one win and two losses (3 points, -3 goal difference, 1 goal scored).

The Athletic projected that third-place teams with 4 points or more have a near-100% (over 99%) chance of advancing to the Round of 32.

For teams with 3 points, like South Korea, the outlet estimated a 70% chance of advancement, noting that those with a goal difference of 0 or higher are expected to have a 99% chance of securing a ticket to the knockout stage.

Among the teams that have not yet played their third group stage match, Paraguay in Group D and Algeria in Group J currently have the same points as South Korea but a lower goal difference (-2).

(Photo: Yonhap News)
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.