"Count Me Out?" "I'll Overturn Everything!"... Netanyahu's Gamble After Being 'Passed Over' Even by the US

00:00 "Netanyahu is in a Panic!"
02:58 Why Was Israel Left Out?
04:06 Lebanon Buffer Zone: Why Netanyahu Cannot Give It Up
05:23 Israel Becomes the Biggest Variable in Negotiations: What Lies Ahead?

1. "Netanyahu is in a Panic!"
This is Switzerland. From here in Switzerland, let's talk about Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Local reports are currently emerging that "Prime Minister Netanyahu is in a panic" and "has received a major shock." It may seem puzzling that Netanyahu, who did not seem heavily shaken even when more than 70,000 people lost their lives in Gaza due to Israeli attacks, is now in a panic. The reason lies with the United States and Iran. The two countries, which have agreed on a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to end the war and are negotiating its details, met here in Switzerland last weekend. In their first round of talks, the two sides agreed to establish a de-confliction mechanism—referred to in English as a "de-confliction cell"—to resolve the conflict between Israel and Lebanon. Iran has set a detailed list of conditions for the nuclear dismantlement negotiations desired by the U.S. These include lifting economic sanctions, allowing Iranian oil exports, and permanently halting attacks on Iranian territory, among others. Another condition they included is the cessation of Israeli attacks on Lebanon. And not just a temporary halt, but a permanent cessation. This is Article 1 of the war-ending MOU between the U.S. and Iran. Although it was placed in Article 1 as the most crucial point, Israel paid no heed and attacked Lebanon again even after President Trump signed it. As is widely known, they targeted Hezbollah, resulting in dozens of casualties. Iran took issue with this. Questioning how negotiations could proceed when even Article 1 could not be upheld, Iran postponed the talks scheduled for last week. The Trump administration, facing a barrage of criticism over why this war was fought in the first place, is eager to secure at least the nuclear dismantlement deal and wrap things up as much as possible before the midterm elections this fall. Consequently, last week, Vice President Vance even went so far as to warn a non-compliant Israel, telling them to "wake up."

[JD Vance / US Vice President: Israelis who think President Trump is the problem need to wake up and realize the reality that Israel is facing.]

While Trump is known for his harsh rhetoric, it is highly unusual and awkward for the Vice President to tell Israel—which was marching shoulder-to-shoulder toward Iran just two months ago—to "wake up." Despite this, Israel remains steadfast, showing its determination to maintain its presence in Lebanon and continue attacks if necessary. This is why, at the very first meeting between the U.S. and Iran, a consensus was reached to address the Israel issue first, even before starting full-scale negotiations on the nuclear issue. What is this de-confliction mechanism? It is a forum where the parties gather to consult in order to prevent conflicts between Israel and Lebanon. Who is in this mechanism? The United States is in it, Iran is in it, along with Pakistan and Qatar, which played mediating roles, and Lebanon, a direct party. However, Israel is excluded from this list.

2. Why Was Israel Left Out?
Israel, an actual party to the conflict, has been left out of the de-confliction cell. Why is that? Simply put, Israel has been defined as a "conflict-instigating nation" and a "peace-disrupting nation." Israel claims its attacks on Hezbollah are in self-defense. They argue, "We are also suffering damage from Hezbollah's attacks." Indeed, soldiers have died, and they have been targeted by drone strikes. However, this is practically equivalent to defining Israel as the primary culprit violating the truce between the two nations. Think of it this way: when a military clash occurs in Lebanon, the de-confliction cell—excluding Israel—summons the Lebanese representative to ask, "What happened here?" and "What did Israel do?" before reaching a conclusion. While they might listen to Israel's perspective, Iran, Pakistan, Qatar, Lebanon, and even the U.S. are unlikely to give much weight to Israel's words. Going back to the beginning, this is why local reports are saying "Netanyahu is in a panic" and "has received a major shock."

3. Lebanon Buffer Zone: Why Netanyahu Cannot Give It Up
Netanyahu, who egged Trump on to the point of war, is highly unlikely to sit idly by. While Trump is in a hurry ahead of the midterms, Netanyahu also faces a general election in November. Netanyahu, who is currently on trial for corruption charges, faces an uncertain future if he loses the general election. Furthermore, although war fatigue has heavily accumulated within Israel, public opinion remains hardline regarding the Lebanon issue. Southern Lebanon, where Hezbollah exerts influence, borders Israel. Originally, until the year 2000, this area contained a buffer zone similar to a demilitarized zone. Netanyahu's plan is to restore that buffer zone under the pretext of the war with Iran, and polls show that more than half of the public supports this. Moreover, in other polls, barely over 10% of Israeli citizens believe Israel won the war with Iran. Therefore, Netanyahu cannot afford to give up securing the Lebanon buffer zone, which is one of the few moves that still enjoys public support. Under these circumstances, even when Trump reportedly threatened him harshly, saying that Netanyahu would have gone to prison if not for him, Netanyahu is holding his ground, refusing to withdraw his troops.

4. Israel Becomes the Biggest Variable in Negotiations: What Lies Ahead?
Israel has become the biggest variable in the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, though some speculate that Israel could eventually join the de-confliction cell. However, Iran is a country that unconditionally forfeits international sports matches if drawn against Israel. It does not view Israel as a dialogue partner. If Israel were to join the de-confliction cell, Iran would likely pull out. Consequently, Israel, increasingly isolated after being passed over, has entered a state where it is unpredictable what kind of obstructionist tactics it might employ. On the flip side, this also means Israel holds leverage to disrupt the U.S.-Iran negotiations. Reports suggest that Israel is using this leverage to wage a diplomatic campaign against the U.S. Netanyahu will only back down if he can appease domestic public opinion and secure something that helps him win the general election, but there is currently no clear-cut solution. Although a proposal is being discussed for the Lebanese Armed Forces—rather than Israel or Hezbollah—to secure the buffer zone, it is highly uncertain whether Netanyahu would be satisfied with that. At this point, Netanyahu has truly become a loose cannon, making the 60-day negotiation window between the U.S. and Iran feel all the more precarious.

Reported by Kwon Young-in | Written by Shin Hee-sook | Camera by Kim Si-nae | Video by Na Hong-hee | Graphics by Yook Do-hyun | Produced by SBS Digital News
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.