US Temporarily Waives Sanctions on Iranian Crude, Allowing Up to 4.7 Trillion Won in Revenue Over 60 Days

An analysis suggests that Iran's economy is poised to reap significant benefits as the United States temporarily waives sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports in accordance with a memorandum of understanding (MOU) aimed at ending the war in Iran.

The measure is estimated to allow Iran to generate up to $3.06 billion (approximately 4.71 trillion won) in additional revenue over a 60-day period, offering a lifeline to the Iranian economy, which had been pushed to the brink of collapse by the war.

According to the U.S. weekly news magazine Newsweek on June 23, local time, Brett Erickson, president of Obsidian Risk Advisors, a geopolitical risk advisory firm, estimated that Iran could earn an additional $37.4 million to $51 million (approximately 57.6 billion to 78.5 billion won) per day.

Erickson analyzed that assuming Iran can sell off all of its marketable crude oil inventory, it could rake in an additional $2.24 billion to $3.06 billion (approximately 3.45 trillion to 4.71 trillion won) during the 60-day sanctions waiver period.

Previously, the U.S. Department of the Treasury issued a 60-day temporary general license the previous day, permitting the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian crude oil.

This marks a 180-degree turn from the pressure-only policy of U.S. President Donald Trump, who had choked Iran with high-intensity sanctions since withdrawing from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, during his presidency in 2018.

Due to U.S. sanctions, Iran had previously been able to export crude oil to only a handful of countries, including China, and even then, had to accept steep discounts and navigate complex, roundabout routes.

However, Erickson pointed out that this should not be viewed merely as a "financial windfall."

"If you look only at the political rhetoric, it seems like Iran won the lottery, but the reality is different," Erickson explained. "Iran was already selling oil, but it was paying a sort of 'sanctions tax' in the form of operating a so-called 'shadow fleet,' laundering illicit funds, and paying middleman fees."

In other words, the analysis suggests that the sanctions waiver does not create a new source of income, but rather maximizes the profitability of existing ones.

Before the outbreak of the war in Iran on February 28, the price of Brent crude was around $66 (approximately 101,640 won) per barrel, but Iran had been selling its crude at a discount of about $10 (approximately 15,400 won).

With this measure, Iran is now able to sell its oil at prices closer to the market rate.

In particular, by saving on bypass costs that amounted to about $7 (approximately 10,780 won) per barrel—such as shadow fleet operations, lack of insurance risks, and money laundering through shell companies—Iran's actual take-home revenue has effectively increased by a total of about $11 (approximately 16,940 won) per barrel.

Erickson projected that even if Iran sells only 2.3 million barrels per day on average—representing 70% of its exportable volume—it could earn about $1.5 billion (approximately 2.31 trillion won) more than it would have under the sanctions.

Currently, Iran has secured a crude oil inventory of about 180 million barrels.

Its production, which had dropped to 2.3 million barrels per day in the aftermath of the war, is also recovering rapidly, making it possible to sell up to 201.5 million barrels within the 60-day waiver period.

However, experts are expressing caution over whether this short-term revenue boost will translate into long-term economic benefits.

"Once the inventory is completely cleared out this month, production next month will fall short of pre-war levels, which could cause revenues to plummet," Erickson said, predicting that even if the sanctions waiver is extended for a year instead of 60 days, the maximum annual additional profit would be capped at around $10 billion (approximately 15.4 trillion won).

Ben Cahill, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank, also emphasized that what matters most is "what happens after the 60 days."

"The key question is whether Iran can sell more crude oil to countries other than China," Cahill said.

Ultimately, the crux of the matter lies in the implementation of the memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed separately last week by President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.

The MOU includes provisions for the U.S. and Iran to cooperate toward the ultimate lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil.

Cahill expected that if this temporary 60-day measure becomes a permanent policy, it would have a highly positive impact on the Iranian economy.

"If Iran recovers its export volume to 2015–2017 levels and oil prices are assumed at $70 (approximately 107,800 won) per barrel, Iran could generate an additional $35 billion (approximately 53.9 trillion won) annually in massive oil export revenues," Cahill projected.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg News reported that Iran has begun contacting refiners in Asian countries, including South Korea, to resume crude oil exports and dispose of floating storage in light of the temporary sanctions waiver.

According to the report, officials from the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) had been in contact with refiners in South Korea, India, and Japan even before the official announcement of the U.S. sanctions waiver, and their movements have accelerated since the announcement.

However, Bloomberg explained that Asian refiners are in no rush.

Reasons cited include that most have already secured alternative supply sources and hold sufficient inventories, and they must also consider the potential for policy shifts by the Trump administration.
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.