Hitting the 'Jackpot': Iran Expected to Gain 4.7 Trillion Won in Revenue—What Is the Secret Behind the 'True Winner'?

Analysis suggests that Iran stands to gain significant economic benefits as the United States temporarily lifts sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports under a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the two nations.

On June 23 (local time), a U.S. current affairs weekly cited an interview with the head of a risk consultancy firm, estimating that Iran could generate up to $3.06 billion—approximately 4.71 trillion won—in additional revenue over a 60-day period.

The expert analyzed that if Iran is able to sell its entire available crude oil stockpile, it could earn roughly 4.7 trillion won in extra profit during the 60-day sanctions waiver period.

On June 23, the U.S. Department of the Treasury issued a 60-day temporary general license permitting the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian crude oil.

This marks a 180-degree shift from the "maximum pressure" policy maintained by U.S. President Donald Trump, who had tightened the noose on Iran with high-intensity sanctions since withdrawing from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) during his previous term in 2018.

As a result, Iran, which had been selling oil at a discount of about $10 below market price prior to the outbreak of the conflict, will now be able to sell its oil at prices closer to market value.

Experts analyzed that this U.S. measure will allow Iran to save approximately $7 per barrel in circumvention costs, such as expenses related to uninsured risks and money laundering through shell companies.

Currently, Iran holds an inventory of approximately 180 million barrels of crude oil.

However, experts remained cautious about whether this short-term increase in revenue would lead to long-term economic gains.

Ben Cahill, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, a think tank, stated, "The important thing is 'what happens after the 60 days,'" adding, "The key is whether Iran can sell more crude oil to countries other than China."

Ultimately, the core issue lies in the implementation of the MOU signed separately by President Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian last week.

The MOU includes provisions for the U.S. and Iran to cooperate toward the ultimate lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil.

Reported by Kim Jiuk | Video by Kim Naon | Graphics by Lee Sumin | Produced by SBS Digital News
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.