US, Iran Pivot Toward Deal Amid Catastrophe Crisis... Fluid Until Final Signing

After trading attacks and counterattacks for two consecutive days, the United States and Iran appeared to pivot sharply toward reaching a war-ending agreement on June 11 (local time).

This shift came on the third day of U.S. strikes against Iran, which had resumed on June 9 following the downing of a U.S. military Apache helicopter, as President Donald Trump abruptly announced the cancellation of the airstrikes via social media.

Trump stated that he canceled the third wave of airstrikes, which had been scheduled for Thursday night, "based on the fact that the discussions between [the U.S. and] the Islamic Republic of Iran were conveyed to and approved by Iran's top leadership."

He added that the warring parties—the United States and Israel—along with the mediator Pakistan and key Middle Eastern nations including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Türkiye, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, and Egypt, had all approved the contents of the discussions.

He then announced that "the time and place of the signing ceremony will be announced shortly." Later, during a proclamation signing ceremony in the Oval Office, he told reporters that a signing ceremony could "probably" be held in Europe this weekend, and if so, Vice President JD Vance would attend.

On the Iranian side, responses suggested that while President Trump might be getting slightly ahead of himself, there was a positive atmosphere pointing toward a deal.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said that nothing has been finalized regarding the signing of the agreement, and that reports about the time and place of the signing are purely "speculative," Iran's state-run IRNA news agency reported.

However, Baghaei acknowledged that a large part of the agreement has been finalized.

Although he pointed out that the U.S. had repeatedly changed its stance during negotiations, his remarks could be seen as maintaining a "cautious approach" based on experience rather than "denying" the message from the U.S. side.

Additionally, Iran's Fars News Agency, citing an informed source, reported that "no text has been approved regarding the initial memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the United States."

However, it added, "As the United States ultimately accepted the original draft of the MOU proposed by Iran, it is observed that Iran's top leadership is highly likely to give final approval to the text."

Judging by President Trump's announcement and the Iranian response, the Middle East war, which began on February 28 and has lasted for over 100 days, is believed to have averted a catastrophic crisis and is now on the verge of a negotiated settlement.

The previous day, Trump said that "the negotiation is completely finished, but they are dragging their feet," adding, "All they have to do is sign [the document]," suggesting that the agreement itself was nearly complete, separate from the airstrikes.

Putting together the statements made so far, it appears that with only the final signing remaining, the U.S. used airstrikes to pressure Iran as it delayed, and once approval from Iran's top leadership was finally secured, the U.S. canceled the scheduled airstrikes and began preparing for the signing ceremony.

Indeed, the U.S. side explained that communication took time because Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has not appeared in public and has conveyed his intentions only through couriers, coupled with deep divisions within the Iranian leadership.

Ultimately, analysis suggests that Trump's pressure tactics—hinting at the potential seizure of Kharg Island, Iran's largest oil export terminal, while launching limited airstrikes on military facilities rather than civilian infrastructure like power plants and bridges—proved effective.

President Trump may have also felt the burden of continued hostilities during the FIFA World Cup, which kicked off on Thursday and is co-hosted by the United States, Canada, and Mexico.

Speculation had been rising within the U.S. administration that they would push to finalize the agreement before the World Cup began.

Since the ceasefire in early April, fatigue had grown as negotiations dragged on without a final resolution, and Trump was facing mounting economic and political pressure from rising global oil prices and domestic gasoline costs.

With the ball back in Iran's court, the key questions are whether Iran will proceed with signing the agreement as announced by President Trump, and what the final war-ending MOU will contain if a deal is reached.

Regarding the highly anticipated details of the war-ending MOU, Iran's Fars News Agency reported that President Trump had withdrawn his additional demands and returned to the draft MOU that was nearing completion two weeks ago.

The previously known draft MOU involved extending the ceasefire for 60 days and negotiating Iran's nuclear issue during that period. However, Trump had refused to accept this, stating he was unsatisfied with such terms, and pushed for renegotiation. The Iranian side claims that he has now abandoned his push to alter the agreement.

Nevertheless, the consensus is that if President Trump makes significant concessions to Iran on core issues—such as the level of the denuclearization agreement, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the imposition of transit fees, and the unfreezing of Iranian assets—he will face substantial political risks ahead of the midterm elections in November.

Consequently, attention is focused on how the suspension of Iran's uranium enrichment program and the handling of its existing highly enriched uranium are reflected in the agreement, in line with Trump's self-imposed "red line" and his repeated public declarations that "Iran cannot have nuclear weapons."

During the proclamation signing ceremony, Trump said, "Most importantly, we have an agreement that Iran will never possess a nuclear weapon," adding that the Strait of Hormuz would open and the U.S. naval blockade of Iran would be lifted immediately upon signing.

Ultimately, the situation is expected to remain fluid until both sides put their final signatures on the agreement.

Even if both sides have agreed on the framework of the deal, the possibility of the Middle East situation deteriorating again cannot be ruled out if the final wording cannot be smoothly reconciled.

(Photo: AP, Yonhap News)
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.