"'Casting Vote' Israeli Ultra-Orthodox Party Shows Signs of Splitting From Netanyahu"

Local media outlets have reported that the United Torah Judaism (UTJ), an ultra-Orthodox party that emerged as the casting vote in Israel's recent general election, is showing signs of breaking away from Benjamin Netanyahu's camp.

This suggests that those who were long-time loyal allies of the Netanyahu administration could turn to the opposition camp led by Gadi Eisenkot.

In the recent election, the UTJ secured 7 seats.

Netanyahu's camp, including the UTJ, won 53 seats, while the opposition camp led by Eisenkot stopped at 48 seats, meaning neither side secured a majority of 61 seats.

In this situation, if the UTJ defects, Netanyahu's camp would drop to 46 seats, giving them fewer seats than the opposition.

As a result, the UTJ's choice has emerged as a major variable in negotiations for forming the next government.

According to local broadcaster Channel 12, voices within the UTJ suggest that rather than continuing to support Netanyahu, the party should leverage its bargaining power between the two sides to achieve its core demands.

An official from the UTJ told the broadcaster, "We cannot get anything from Netanyahu. Especially since he no longer even has 61 seats, his alliance with us has run its course," adding, "We want to become a force that plays a decisive role in the Knesset [parliament] once again."

The biggest issue in the negotiations is the military service exemption for ultra-Orthodox Jewish seminary students.

Ultra-Orthodox Jews, or Haredim, strictly follow Jewish law and tradition, placing particular emphasis on men dedicating themselves to scripture study in religious schools known as yeshivas.

Representing them, the UTJ has demanded that the law guarantee military exemptions so that yeshivas students can continue their religious studies instead of serving in the military.

However, there is strong backlash surrounding fairness issues.

In June 2024, the Israeli Supreme Court also ruled that there is no legal basis to exempt yeshivas students en masse from the draft.

The UTJ had expected Netanyahu to process the military exemption bill, but as legislation was delayed, it withdrew from the ruling coalition in July of last year.

That does not mean a compromise with Eisenkot will be easy.

Eisenkot also strongly opposes comprehensive military exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox.

Therefore, even if the UTJ tries to change its partner for cooperation, a military service law compromise acceptable to both sides must be arranged.

According to Channel 12, some UTJ figures believe such a compromise is possible through negotiations.

One method of cooperation being discussed first is for the UTJ not to directly participate in the coalition, but to support Eisenkot's minority government from the outside.

The plan is to abstain instead of opposing the government or government-sponsored bills, thereby helping the government survive.

For the UTJ, this would reduce the political burden of officially joining the Eisenkot government while still exerting influence in negotiations over the military service law.

Another scenario being discussed is the UTJ officially joining the Eisenkot coalition after the military exemption bill is passed.

However, it remains unclear how Eisenkot, who lacks a majority in parliament, will secure the support needed to pass the bill.

Channel 12 reported that the UTJ's support plans are being discussed at the working level, and it is not clear whether the proposal has been delivered to Eisenkot himself.

Eisenkot's Yesh Atid party did not respond to a request for comment.

The daily Israel Hayom also reported on October 28, citing a UTJ official, that "the possibility of cooperating with Eisenkot is not being ruled out."

This official predicted that any politician capable of pushing through legislation guaranteeing military exemptions for yeshivas students could gain the support of both ultra-Orthodox parties, the UTJ and Shas, following approval from the religious leadership.

(Photo: Getty Images)
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.