Why Trump Could Be Eyeing a Trip to Pyongyang

1. "Signs of North Korea-US Dialogue Exist"... What Is Really Going On?
Let's start with the briefing given to the media by Representative Yoon Kun-young, the main opposition Democratic Party's secretary who received a report from the National Intelligence Service (NIS). "We believe a North Korea-US summit is possible at any time, and there are signs of dialogue." Because President Trump has repeatedly posted photos of the North Korea-US summits and unilaterally scaled down the South Korea-US joint military exercises—which North Korea detests—almost as if just notifying us, it sparked interest: "Wait, is something actually happening?" If there are real signs, Trump's call for engagement becomes an entirely different story. So, we checked the briefing details closely, and found a prerequisite attached to it.

[Yoon Kun-young / National Assembly Intelligence Committee Member (Democratic Party): No specific facts regarding concrete contacts between North Korea and the US are being checked out...]

This means no concrete facts of contact have been verified. Then what does it mean to say there are signs of dialogue even though no facts are verified? We spoke with committee members who attended the briefing. They explained that while contact remains unconfirmed, there are indeed circumstances indicating that North Korea is interested in North Korea-US dialogue. To sum up the situation: we cannot say with 100% certainty that the North and the US are not moving behind the scenes without the NIS knowing, but when North Korea makes a move with tangible actions, those are usually shared to a large extent. That has not been significantly revealed. However, Pyongyang also appears to be keeping a close eye on President Trump's recent moves.

2. Will Trump Go to Pyongyang? Which US Presidents Almost Went?
You might remember John Bolton, who served as White House National Security Advisor during the first Trump administration. He predicted that if a North Korea-US summit takes place, only one scenario remains. Since Trump held the DMZ meeting at Panmunjom in 2019, he would try to visit Pyongyang this time, Bolton argued. No sitting US president has ever set foot in North Korea. There have been cases of former presidents visiting: former President Jimmy Carter visited Pyongyang in 1994, and former President Bill Clinton in 2009, meeting Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il, respectively. There were also instances where visits were pushed right up to the brink before falling through. This refers to 2000, during Bill Clinton's presidency. At the time, resolving the missile issue with North Korea was the main point of contention. Then-US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright visited Pyongyang in October 2000 to coordinate a summit within the year, but this ultimately did not pan out. Because a Middle East peace agreement between Israel and Palestine was within reach at the time, Clinton chose to resolve the Middle East issue over the North Korea issue.

3. Trump Once Suggested "Let's Go to Pyongyang in Air Force One"... But What About the Iran War Quagmire?
Will President Trump actually try to go to Pyongyang, as Bolton suggested? Trump actually proposed flying together to Pyongyang on Air Force One after the Hanoi no-deal. Chairman Kim Jong-un turned it down at the time, but White House security officials were thrown into complete chaos. So, stepping onto Pyongyang soil as a US president seems like a much less complicated matter in Trump's mind than one might think. If we look back at the situation during the discussions for Clinton's visit in 2000, the Middle East issue and the North Korea issue were competing for priority at the time. Just as then, the Iran war shows no sign of ending, meaning the Middle East and North Korean issues remain intertwined. President Trump is struggling to pull himself out of the quagmire of the Iran war. It can also be said that the reduction of joint exercises was influenced by the situation regarding US military forces heavily committed to the Middle East. If there is a stark difference from the past, it is the leadership's inclination in determining priorities. Unlike Clinton, who ultimately chose the Middle East issue to concentrate diplomatic resources, today's Trump is different. It is interpreted that Trump still judges meeting Kim Jong-un to be useful for pushing criticism over the Iran war out of the headlines. This suggests he is aiming for a distraction effect rather than concentration.

4. Dialogue Without Preconditions vs. Dialogue With Preconditions
A tug-of-war is underway between North Korea and the US to resume dialogue. It is currently an off-court war of words. The White House stated on the 1st local time that "President Trump remains open to talking with Kim Jong-un without any preconditions." There was no mention of denuclearization. Talking without conditions may sound like a quite conciliatory message, but from North Korea's perspective, it probably is not all that pleasant. This is because what North Korea demands is dialogue with preconditions. Chairman Kim Jong-un laid down preconditions for improving relations with the US during the 9th Party Congress in February: first, that the US respect his country's status enshrined in the constitution, the so-called nuclear-armed state status; and second, that it withdraw its hostile policy toward North Korea. The basket named hostile policy toward North Korea is quite fluid in size. Joint military exercises, human rights issues, and sanctions against the North could all be included here. To recap, Trump is saying let's just meet and talk since we won't bring up denuclearization anyway, while North Korea's stance is that not mentioning denuclearization is a given and wants a plus-alpha showing of sincerity. How this gap is narrowed is expected to be a major point in gauging the possibility of full-scale North Korea-US dialogue. Trump pressured Kim Jong-un with Yeongbyon-plus-alpha in Hanoi, but somehow the roles seem to have reversed now.

(Reported by Kim Ayeong | Produced by Shin Hee-suk | Video by Lee Byung-joo | Video Editing by Seo Byung-wook | Graphics by Yang Hye-min | Produced by SBS Digital News)
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.