Trump's Approval Rating Hits Record Low of 33%... Is US-North Korea Summit the Breakthrough?

Will they really meet? For now, US President Donald Trump said the following.

[Donald Trump / US President: (Are you planning to meet Chairman Kim later this year?) Yes, I am.]

We should also hear North Korea's side. Kim Yo-jong, director of the General Affairs Department of the Workers' Party and the mouthpiece for North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, issued a rather intriguing statement. She said, "I do not know about the communication between the leaders of North Korea and the United States," adding, "This is probably the only matter I am unaware of." At the same time, she stated, "The relationship between the two leaders is as excellent as one might think." It leaves much room for interpretation. It is likely intentional. Let us break it down one by one.
 
First, Trump's resolve for a US-North Korea summit is strong. Above all, there are only about 70 days left until the November 3 midterm elections. The prevailing mood in the United States is that "it will not be easy for the ruling Republican Party to win," and that "it will likely lose its majority to the Democratic Party, especially in the House of Representatives." If he loses the midterm elections, it will become virtually difficult for Trump to run state affairs as he wishes during his remaining two years in office. Naturally, he would want to avoid that. However, his hands are tied by the war in Iran. Massive amounts of money have been spent, no victory has been achieved, the issue of nuclear dismantlement has not even been brought up, and the Strait of Hormuz has been blocked, drawing widespread international outcry. Fuel prices have also surged. As of this month, the US national average gasoline price is around $4.08 to $4.10 per gallon. Right before the outbreak of the war with Iran, the average was $2.98. That is an increase of nearly 40%. In the United States, where people cannot go anywhere without a car, gasoline prices serve as the most direct indicator for feeling the state of the economy.
 

There are various other controversies as well. The national debt surpassed $40 trillion for the first time. Recently, a so-called "private jet transfer" incident occurred, which escalated into another controversy. This was due to aide Natalie Harp, a former pro-Trump television anchor who transferred planes with him. As she became known for printing out and delivering articles for Trump to read and participating in drafting his social media messages, nicknames such as "gatekeeper" and "shadow aide" followed her. The New York Times even sarcastically referred to her as "Trump's security blanket," noting that Trump calls Harp "sweetie." Recently, talk has also surfaced that Harp influenced the resignation of Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt. The controversy expanded further as Trump reacted sensitively to related questions from reporters.

[Donald Trump / US President: Fake news! You are fake news. You are a loud, obnoxious person. Fake news, be quiet. Be quiet!]
 
Public opinion in the United States is naturally unfavorable. Trump's recent approval rating stood at 33%, hitting the lowest point of his second term. Therefore, Trump needs a new event. The common analysis among US media and experts is that this event is a US-North Korea summit. Talks are currently emerging about holding a meeting on the occasion of the APEC summit to be held in Shenzhen, China, in November. If he finalizes the summit ahead of the midterm elections, it could be used as an opportunity to rebound his approval ratings. From Trump's perspective, he would want to put forth as much as possible before election day. Some analysts even suggest that this schedule could be moved forward to stage a so-called "October Surprise" event before the midterms. Showing just how urgent the situation is, Trump mentioned a specific number for the first time, stating that North Korea possesses 57 nuclear weapons.

[Donald Trump / US President: Chairman Kim has 57 very powerful nuclear weapons. That should never have been allowed to happen in the first place. It should never have been permitted. If I were president, that wouldn't have happened. But anyway, he got his hands on them.]


When asked if he is pursuing the denuclearization of North Korea, he dodged the question.

[Donald Trump / US President: Well, I don't want to talk about that, but as you know, I have a good relationship with Kim Jong Un.]

The reason this is significant is that it could be interpreted as a message that Trump might recognize North Korea as a nuclear-armed state in order to meet Kim Jong-un. The official US position remains "the denuclearization of North Korea." This has not changed. However, North Korea drew a firm line early on, stating, "There will never be discussions on denuclearization." Therefore, speculation arises that Trump might recognize the reality of North Korea possessing nuclear weapons in order to meet Kim, eliminate only the ICBM threat to secure the safety of the US mainland, and then claim, "I have eliminated the North Korean nuclear threat." Of course, some analyses suggest this will be difficult in practice, because if Trump recognizes North Korea as a nuclear-armed state, the global nonproliferation regime would collapse.

John Bolton, former White House national security adviser who was a key figure in the "Hanoi No Deal," criticized the move, saying, "The North Korean threat is growing with Trump's help," and "Unless attention is shifted away from North Korea to something else, the next post from Trump on social media could be 'flying to Pyongyang.'" US media outlets are now even using expressions like "Trump is clinging to Kim Jong-un." Predictions are also being made that when Chinese President Xi Jinping visits the US next month, Trump will ask him for assistance. Previously, even after the "No Deal" at the Hanoi summit in February 2019, Trump met Chairman Kim four months later at Panmunjom. I was on the scene at Panmunjom at that time, and dozens of American reporters were following the event. Although it was a meeting devoid of substantive content, the spectacle was on a blockbuster scale. Trump essentially demonstrated that he can meet even without results if necessary.
 
However, Chairman Kim Jong-un also knows what we know. He must have acutely realized through previous summits that, unlike in North Korea, Trump cannot do everything in the United States. Most importantly, North Korea in 2026 is vastly different from 2018 and 2019, when the first and second summits took place. The dynamic has completely changed. In 2018 and 2019, China and Russia participated in international sanctions in one way or another. Now, through participation in the Russia-Ukraine war and Xi Jinping's visit to North Korea, the North Korea-China-Russia alliance has been solidly forged. The economy has also improved significantly compared to the past. From Kim Jong-un's perspective, it may be better to leave a slight opening as he is doing now and observe what more Trump can offer. He could demand the recognition of North Korea as a nuclear state and a fundamental resolution to hostile policies toward the North, such as the cessation of South Korea-US joint military drills, as preconditions for dialogue. Depending on the situation, after offering appropriate lip service, the possibility of meeting after observing the results of the US midterm elections—provided Trump does not become a lame duck—cannot be ruled out. After all, it is Trump, not North Korea, who is in a rush. Right now, the ball is in Pyongyang's court rather than Washington's, and time appears to be on Chairman Kim Jong-un's side.
 
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.