Only Putin's Decision Left... Internal Chaos in Russia Amid Rumors of Imminent Mass Mobilization

Reports indicate that Russia is considering a mass mobilization order to recruit new troops to deploy to the battlefield in Ukraine.

The U.S. daily The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 23rd, local time, that Russian military authorities visited Kaliningrad, an exclave sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania, last month to inspect preparation plans and procedures in anticipation of mobilizing local residents.

According to Western intelligence authorities, the Russian military is conducting nationwide inspections of additional mobilization plans to prepare for troop shortages.

It appears that a final decision has not yet been made on whether Russian authorities will actually issue a mobilization order.

The WSJ predicted that a mobilization order would not be issued before the general election in September.

However, as Russia's troop shortages have recently worsened and Russian President Vladimir Putin has not backed down from his resolve to seize the Donbas, some observers suggest that an additional mobilization order may ultimately be unavoidable.

Such outlooks are fueling anxiety within Russia.

According to the WSJ, as rumors of an imminent mobilization order spread, men of draft age are seeking ways to flee abroad.

Real estate prices are surging in neighboring Armenia as well as Georgia, which shares a border with Russia, amid expectations of an influx of Russian immigrants.

Moscow customs authorities stated last week that the number of people crossing the border into Georgia exceeded 20,000 per day, hitting an all-time high.

The WSJ noted that if the additional mobilization order becomes a reality, it could help Russia strengthen its front lines and accelerate its advance to seize the Donbas.

However, questions are also being raised about whether the mobilization order would have a practical effect if issued ahead of the winter season, when combat inevitably slows down.

Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the U.S. think tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, analyzed, "Because it is already too late for this year, this measure will not have a decisive impact," adding, "It could become a variable in next year's combat."

Points are also being raised that issuing a mass mobilization order would impose a heavy burden on the Russian economy.

Alexander Koliandr, a director at the consulting firm Eurasia Group, pointed out, "Russia is mortgaging its future for military gains," adding, "Mobilizing troops and providing them with food, weapons, and pay amid an already severe labor shortage will inevitably place massive pressure on the budget."

(Photo: AP, Yonhap News)
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.