U.S. Defeats in Simulation? Shocking Assessment From Within U.S.

The Heritage Foundation, a prominent conservative U.S. think tank known to serve as a brain trust for the Trump administration, has raised concerns over a shortage of U.S. interceptor missile stockpiles, analyzing that the U.S. could face a strategic defeat if a conflict breaks out with China.

Jim Carafano, a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, recently published a report titled "Regional Missile Defense Stocks—Insufficient for a U.S.-China Conflict."

The report diagnosed that "the U.S. tactical missile defense system is insufficient to sustain operations in a long-term, high-intensity conflict with China," adding that "at current levels, the Chinese People's Liberation Army could neutralize key U.S. military bases, such as Andersen Air Force Base in Guam, within the first few days of a conflict."

The Heritage Foundation is the think tank that published "Project 2025," a policy proposal book compiling policy tasks for the next administration with the reelection of President Trump in mind during the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

While other U.S. media outlets have previously addressed the issue of the U.S. military's missile inventory shortages, this reveals that the conservative think tank Heritage Foundation also views the situation as serious.

The report specifically analyzed that inventories of U.S. interceptor missiles—such as Patriot, THAAD, SM-6 (often called the "Patriot of the sea"), and SM-3—are less than 10 percent of the quantities required to deter or win a conflict with China.

It further projected that "even if China uses only a fraction of its own missile inventory to target U.S. bases, the United States would exhaust all of its interceptor missiles within days."

The Heritage Foundation stated that it produced these projections by running simulations based on scenarios including the U.S. military's interception of Iranian missiles during the Iran conflict, as well as estimated stockpiles of missiles held by the Chinese and U.S. militaries.

Citing former Indo-Pacific Command Chief Phil Davidson regarding the possibility that a conflict between the U.S. and China could erupt in 2027, the report emphasized that "very little time remains to resolve the interceptor missile shortage issue."
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.