US Intelligence Evaluates Iran's Strategic Priority Shift from Nuclear to Hormuz

The U.S. military intelligence reportedly assesses that Iran has placed its strategic priority on controlling the Strait of Hormuz rather than its nuclear program.

According to NBC News on the 11th (local time), multiple U.S. officials familiar with the matter conveyed this assessment by U.S. military intelligence.

Military officials reportedly briefed U.S. President Donald Trump that while the U.S. could attempt to seize control of the Strait of Hormuz by force, there is no guarantee of victory.

It was also reported that the operation would take a significant amount of time, be lethal, and come at a heavy cost.

Specifically, launching an operation to take control of the Strait of Hormuz could result in numerous U.S. military casualties and injuries.

NBC News reported that the outlook—that a U.S. attempt to open the Strait of Hormuz would be a risky operation with uncertain victory and could provoke missile and drone attacks on U.S. warships—is also shared in Europe and the Gulf region.

Countries in this region are known to have conveyed this assessment to the United States.

Although President Trump claims that the U.S. military controls the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is attempting to expand its control by negotiating management measures for the strait alongside Oman.

It has been pointed out that, paradoxically from Iran's perspective, the war with Iran has secured the Strait of Hormuz as a powerful negotiating leverage.

Two European officials also told NBC News, "Iran believes it effectively controls the Strait of Hormuz and has gained the upper hand in negotiations, viewing the strait as even more powerful leverage than its nuclear program."

With the war with Iran surpassing five months, President Trump is effectively caught in a dilemma.

With weapons being depleted rapidly, expanding the conflict carries a heavy burden.

If the U.S. backs down while Iran claims control of the Strait of Hormuz, it will inevitably face criticism for causing strait blockages without achieving any results in Iran's denuclearization.

Initially, the United States and Iran agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz and lift the maritime blockade against Iran, planning to hold follow-up negotiations for 60 days on agendas including Iran's denuclearization, but the negotiations have fizzled amid armed clashes between the two sides.

The 60-day deadline was until August 16, but prevailing forecasts suggested it would not be easy to derive meaningful results for Iran's denuclearization through initial follow-up negotiations.

Regarding President Trump's remark on the 9th that he is "responding with a low-key approach," analyses have emerged suggesting he may have shifted to a "strangulation strategy" through economic pressure due to the burden of continuing military responses.

While the prolonged U.S. maritime blockade and expansion of sanctions against Iran would inevitably deal a considerable blow to the Iranian leadership, some observe that it remains uncertain whether it would deal a fatal blow to a regime that has endured long-standing international sanctions.

(Photo: AP, Yonhap News)
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.