CXMT Target Prices Differ by Nearly 8-Fold: Nomura Sets 116 Yuan, Morningstar 14.90 Yuan

Ahead of the stock market debut of Chinese memory semiconductor firm ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), Nomura Holdings and Morningstar have presented target prices that differ by nearly eightfold, revealing sharply contrasting views.

According to Bloomberg on the 27th (local time), CXMT entered the Shanghai Stock Exchange's STAR Market (a market dedicated to science and technology stocks) and soared up to 55.03 yuan—a 535% surge from its initial public offering (IPO) price of 8.66 yuan—immediately after opening, making it the largest listed company on the Chinese mainland.

In response, Nomura analyst Donnie Teng issued a note to investors giving CXMT a buy rating and a target price of 116 yuan (approx. 22,581 won).

This is 1,239% higher than the IPO price.

He explained that he applied a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20x to CXMT's projected earnings per share (EPS) for fiscal year 2028.

He added that CXMT shares could trade at a valuation multiple twice that of Micron Technology.

Analyst Teng predicted, "Considering that global memory supply will remain tight for the time being, the pace of CXMT's market share expansion will accelerate."

He also forecasted that global memory consumption will increase more than sevenfold by 2030, driven by demand from AI agents.

Accordingly, he projected that CXMT's memory shipments will grow by 40 to 45% annually through 2030, and its global DRAM market share will expand from its current level of about 10% to 18% by the end of 2028.

On the other hand, Morningstar analyst Jingjie Wei issued a report on the 24th, setting CXMT's fair value per share at 14.90 yuan (approx. 2,899 won), which is 72.1% higher than the IPO price.

This is a level far below the current stock price.

Wei argued that because CXMT has failed to secure extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment, its technological gap will not easily narrow, and the resulting valuation discount will persist for some time.

Analyst Wei stated, "Considering that CXMT's technology lags behind, this will lead to lower DRAM prices compared to pure-play memory competitors, and its valuation multiple will definitely remain at a low level."

Bloomberg noted that these differing target prices show that the market's assessment of CXMT's growth prospects is sharply divided, even as the company rapidly emerges as a threat to global memory powerhouses such as Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron.
 
(Photo: AP, Yonhap News)
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.