North Korea Skips ARF for Second Consecutive Year... Focuses on Bilateral Diplomacy with China and Russia Rather Than Multilateral Stages

North Korea has failed to show up at the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), the only regional multilateral security consultative body it has participated in, for the second consecutive year.

As North Korea strengthens ties with Russia and China, placing more weight on bilateral rather than multilateral diplomatic stages, and with the United States not placing the North Korean issue high on its diplomatic priority list, analysts suggest that Pyongyang will likely maintain a wait-and-see stance until a time when it can maximize its negotiating leverage.

The North Korean delegation ultimately did not attend the ARF meeting held in Manila, Philippines, on local time today (the 23rd).

North Korea also skipped the ARF meeting held in Malaysia last year, marking its first absence since joining the forum.

The ARF is the only regional multilateral security consultative body in which North Korea has participated.

Since joining in 2000, North Korea has utilized it as a multilateral diplomatic stage to engage with regional countries, sometimes engaging in fierce diplomatic battles with South Korea over the chairman's statement.

Since 2019, when the second North Korea-US summit collapsed, North Korea lowered the level of its delegation by sending the ambassador to the host country or the ambassador to the ASEAN mission instead of the foreign minister, and last year it skipped the meeting for the first time in 25 years since its accession.

In diplomatic circles, observations are growing that North Korea is likely to focus on bilateral diplomacy centered around North Korea-Russia and North Korea-China relations rather than multilateral diplomacy such as the ARF for the time being.

Given that it is leveraging its strategic position between China and Russia, and that the US is prioritizing issues such as the Middle East without treating North Korea as a major diplomatic agenda item, analysts say Pyongyang likely judged that there are not many practical benefits to be gained from multilateral diplomacy through the ARF.

There are also forecasts that North Korea will maintain a wait-and-see stance until a point where it can maximize its negotiating leverage, and re-engage in dialogue when necessary.

Possibilities are also being raised that Pyongyang could utilize the multilateral diplomatic stage again if changes in the international situation, such as the end of the war in Russia and Ukraine, alter the environment surrounding North Korea-Russia relations or if conditions for North Korea-US dialogue are created.

The South Korean government is focusing on broadening consensus with regional countries to ensure that South Korea is not sidelined when North Korea eventually returns to the dialogue phase.

A Foreign Ministry official stated during the ASEAN-related foreign ministers' meetings that "Minister Cho Hyun explained the situation on the Korean Peninsula in detail to the participating countries and conveyed concerns that cooperation in the process of North Korea utilizing the space between China and Russia is taking place in a direction that does not help the situation on the Korean Peninsula."

The official added, "Minister Cho requested interest and support for the South Korean government's pursued policy on the Korean Peninsula, and the participating countries also showed understanding of the situation on the Korean Peninsula," and noted, "Since ASEAN places importance on resolving issues through dialogue, it well understands and supports our government's approach, and we expect this stance to be reflected in the chairman's statement as well."

(Photo: Yonhap News)
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.