"They Said It Would Rain": Public Frustration Grows, Yet Accuracy Is 90%?

These days, there are times when it is sunny despite forecasts of rain, or sudden downpours occur without warning.

With so much frustration surrounding the Korea Meteorological Administration's forecasts, how can the accuracy rate be as high as 90 percent?

The figure of 90.5 percent represents the accuracy of predicting the presence or absence of precipitation, which includes days when it did not rain.

You might be wondering, "Was it really that accurate?"

One of the reasons why the public's perceived accuracy is lower than this figure is the "probability of detection" for actual rainfall.

When looking only at days when it actually rained, the forecast accuracy drops to around 66 percent, and this gap is cited as a primary cause for the discrepancy in public perception.

In fact, during a professional baseball game on July 5, the rain forecast changed multiple times right up until the start of the game, leading to complaints from baseball fans who jokingly called the agency a "broadcasting station" for constantly changing the forecast.

Experts explained that during the summer, changes in clouds and atmospheric pressure occur so rapidly that forecasts must be updated in real-time to prepare for localized heavy rain.

They added that a psychological factor, where people tend to remember incorrect forecasts longer than accurate ones, is also a reason why the perceived accuracy remains low.
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.