"3% Growth This Year Driven by Semiconductors"... Challenges Remain in Employment and Inflation

[Anchor]

The government has raised its economic growth forecast for this year to 3%, citing a strong performance in the semiconductor sector. However, the outlook for the number of employed people has been revised down by 10,000 from the initial projection at the start of the year. Managing signs of polarization, where the fruits of growth are concentrated in specific areas, remains a key challenge.

Reporter Jung Jun-ho has the story.

[Reporter]

In announcing its economic growth strategy for the second half of the year, the government has raised its forecast for real GDP growth to 3%.

This is a 1 percentage point increase from the 2% forecast in January, and it stands higher than the projections from the Bank of Korea, the IMF, and the OECD.

The primary reason is the unprecedented boom in semiconductor exports, which are central to global AI infrastructure.

The nominal growth rate, which reflects inflation, is projected to reach 12.3%, the highest in 30 years, due to the sharp rise in semiconductor export prices.

The current account surplus is expected to hit a record high of 290 billion dollars.

The government explained that despite the negative impact of the war in the Middle East, the 26 trillion won supplementary budget has significantly mitigated the shock, adding that the growth forecast also reflects their policy commitment.

[President Lee Jae-myung: I ask for your collective efforts so that this year will be remembered as the inaugural year for South Korea to leap forward as an irreplaceable nation, achieving a 3% potential growth rate, becoming one of the world's top four trading powers, and reaching a per capita national income of 50,000 dollars.]

To achieve this, the government plans to swiftly push forward the so-called "3 Mega Projects"—semiconductors, AI data centers, and physical AI—to secure a "super-gap" in the global market.

Furthermore, the government intends to use tax revenue generated from the semiconductor sector to establish a Future Response Fund, investing heavily in youth, regional development, and education to boost growth potential.

It also plans to train 200,000 young professionals for high-tech industries and strengthen regional-led growth by selecting regional growth engines in the third quarter to provide investment incentives.

However, despite the high growth forecast, the outlook for jobs remains bleak.

The number of employed people this year is now expected to increase by only 150,000, which is 10,000 fewer than the forecast made in January.

This is because growth is concentrated solely in the semiconductor industry, which has a low job creation effect.

[Heo Jun-young / Professor of Economics at Sogang University: Jobs are not being created in sectors like manufacturing, while the semiconductor industry is thriving alone, pulling up the overall economic growth rate.]

In addition, the inflation forecast for this year has been raised from 2.1% to 2.6% due to the aftermath of the war. Experts point out that responding to the impact of high inflation, high interest rates, and a high exchange rate on the public's livelihood will be a major task for the second half of the year.

(Video Editing: Kim Jun-hee)
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.