U.S. Expert: Chinese Missile Test Likely 'JL-3' SLBM, Signaling Shift in Military Ambitions?

It is estimated that the strategic missile test-fired by China toward the Pacific Ocean on July 6 is the Julang (JL)-3, a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) capable of reaching the entire United States.

The Chinese military announced on this day that one of its naval strategic nuclear submarines successfully launched a submarine-launched strategic missile carrying a dummy warhead into international waters in the Pacific Ocean for training purposes.

However, the specifications of the launched missile were not disclosed.

Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, told The New York Times (NYT) that it is highly likely the Chinese military tested the JL-3.

The JL-3, China's third-generation SLBM, has a range of over 10,000 km, placing most regions on Earth, including the U.S. mainland, within its strike range.

SLBMs, which are difficult to detect once a submarine is submerged, are considered significantly more threatening than nuclear weapons launched from land or air.

China previously unveiled the JL-3 during a military parade in September of last year.

This test launch of a submarine-launched strategic missile by China marks the first strategic missile test aimed at the Pacific in one year and 10 months, following an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch in September 2024.

Lewis assessed that this test launch suggests China may accelerate the test-firing of nuclear-capable weapons over the coming years.

Noting the advancement of China's new nuclear-capable missile capabilities, he stated, "It suggests that we are in a new era of testing where all of these systems are going to be tested out in the open."

This is interpreted as a signal that China has begun to fully pursue its military rise, moving away from its long-standing policy of "taoguang yanghui" (hiding one's strength and biding one's time) in foreign and military policy, and instead projecting confidence as a major power.

"Historically, China has conducted fewer ICBM tests than other countries," Lewis analyzed. "The reason was political, but the political dynamics have changed, and they seem to be adopting an approach of testing more frequently."

He pointed out that unlike in the past, when China refrained from long-range missile tests to avoid backlash from the U.S. and other major powers, it now appears willing to accept the political costs associated with ICBM launches.
※ Please note: This article was translated by AI and may contain errors.