▲ The aftermath of a drone attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline on September 13, 2026
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that due to the fallout from the Middle East conflict, which began in Iran and spread to Saudi Arabia and Yemen, oil-producing countries in the region will struggle to restore their economies to pre-war levels for some time.
Jihad Azour, Director of the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia Department, stated during the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank on the 15th local time that "this war has left deep scars across various industries and destroyed major infrastructure."
He added, "With countries forced to spend more to prepare for future crises, they will not return to pre-war growth trends anytime soon."
This assessment comes as the war—sparked by U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and Iran's subsequent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—has dragged on for months and expanded to Saudi Arabia and Yemen.
Disruptions to energy transportation caused by blocked sea routes and prolonged high oil prices are acting as adverse factors for the global economy.
In particular, Saudi Arabia, the largest economy in the Gulf region and hit hardest by the war, is projected to see its economic growth rate shrink to -3.3% this year.
This means Saudi Arabia, which has long relied on massive oil exports as a solid pillar of support, is facing an unprecedented economic downturn.
As clashes recently intensified between the Saudi-led coalition and Yemen's Houthi rebels, airports and energy facilities within Saudi Arabia, as well as the headquarters of state-run oil giant Aramco, suffered critical missile strikes.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned the previous day that the successive attacks targeting Saudi Arabia could "deal a blow to everyone around the world."
According to forecasts released by the IMF on the 13th, the broader Middle East and Central Asia region caught in the direct line of fire of the Iran war is expected to contract by 0.3% this year.
Looking at specific sub-regions, the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan (MENAP) region is projected to shift from 3.3% growth last year to a contraction of 1.3% this year.
Assuming that trade and maritime transport normalize in the first quarter of next year and exports recover during the first half, a strong rebound of 6.6% is expected next year; however, disparities among countries are wide, and total oil production by oil-producing nations is analyzed to fall short of pre-war expectations.
Citing Qatar—which is rapidly recovering despite large-scale destruction of its natural gas production facilities—as an example, Azour explained that future economic prospects depend on how quickly energy production and trade return to normal tracks.
He pointed out that while the region initially bought time and prevented an energy crisis by releasing cushions of financial reserves and stockpiled oil accumulated before the war and finding alternative transport routes, its capacity to endure has now reached its limits.
"Stockpiled reserves have dwindled, and spare production capacity has become tight," Azour warned. "If further problems arise in energy production, shipping routes, or core facilities, oil prices could fluctuate much more violently, and there is a high risk that the economy could deteriorate further than expected."
Azour urged governments across the Middle East to "make price stability the top priority, rebuild depleted fiscal buffers, and build resilience to withstand potential future crises."
The IMF is scheduled to release a detailed regional economic outlook report on the 22nd.
(Photo: AP, Yonhap News)
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