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"Record LNG Ship Transits Through Strait of Hormuz Last Month"... Is Iran's Grip Loosening?


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▲ Ships anchored in the Strait of Hormuz

The volume of liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargo vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz last month reached its highest level since the outbreak of the war involving Iran, Reuters reported on the 1st local time.

S&P Global Energy, a global energy research institution, stated that a total of 19 LNG cargo ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz last month.

It added that this is the highest monthly record since the war between the US, Israel, and Iran began, and an increase compared to the traffic (15 ships) recorded during the entire month of June, when a ceasefire memorandum of understanding (MOU) was signed between the US and Iran.

The vessels that passed through last month consisted of 13 cargo ships departing from Qatar and 6 from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), respectively.

Eric Yip, a senior analyst at S&P, forecasted, "LNG transit through the Strait of Hormuz accelerated particularly in late September," adding, "If this trend is maintained through October, total monthly traffic could recover to around 25% of pre-war levels."

Maritime analytics firm Kpler also stated that a total of 21 LNG cargo ships were recorded passing through the Strait of Hormuz last month.

Although the figures themselves differ from S&P's tally, Kpler's data also showed an increasing trend in LNG cargo ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz compared to June.

Specifically, Kpler reported that three LNG ships—the Al Kharraitiyat, Al Gharafa, and Milaha Qatar, which had loaded cargo at Qatar's Ras Laffan export terminal—were previously spotted inside the Strait of Hormuz and later detected again outside the strait in late September.

However, Reuters noted that it remains uncertain whether this LNG shipping trend can be sustained as energy demand surges during the winter season.

There are also observations that if energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz increase, Iran may perceive this as a weakening of its control over the strait and resort to higher-level military provocations.

Previously, maritime intelligence firm Kpler analyzed that crude oil and petroleum product transport volumes passing through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 13.1 million barrels per day last week.

Considering that pre-war daily transport volumes stood at 17.1 million barrels, this is interpreted as crude oil transportation through the strait recovering to 77% of normal levels.

(Photo: AP, Yonhap News)

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