[Anchor]
The recent landmine explosion occurred at the 25th Division on the Western Front. However, the target for which Kim Yo-jong warned of military retaliation in her statement was the 21st Division on the Eastern Front, far from the scene.
Reporter Kim A-young analyzed the intention behind this move.
[Reporter]
The South Korean military's 21st Infantry Division, which North Korean Workers' Party Vice Department Director Kim Yo-jong threatened by saying they would expand "tactical counterattack means," is stationed in Yanggu County, Gangwon Province, on the Eastern Front, and oversees the longest and widest section of the perimeter fence across the entire military.
As a rugged mountainous area, it differs greatly in terrain from the Western Front, which features many flat plains.
In the process of its so-called "border fortification" work, the North Korean military crossed the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) about 20 times in August and about 30 times in September, with most of these crossings reportedly occurring in the 21st Division's sector, and warning shots were also reportedly fired in August.
The "border fortification work" refers to measures North Korea has taken since 2024, after declaring "two hostile states," treating the MDL—the Military Demarcation Line—as a national border and reinforcing division by intensively installing fences and landmines in the area.
[Kim Yeol-su / Director of Security Strategy at Korea Institute for Military Affairs: Since it is in the Taebaek Mountains region, wouldn't it be more difficult and arduous (to install landmines) than in flat terrain? Because of that, (North Korean soldiers) end up crossing the MDL.]
Analysts also suggest that Kim Yo-jong citing "live fire" as their threshold for counteraction is aimed at blocking further response measures from South Korea to avoid disruptions to the "border fortification work," which aims for completion by 2028.
[Hong Min / Senior Research Fellow at Korea Institute for National Unification: What North Korea is most conscious of right now regarding the border fortification project is South Korea taking action beyond warning shots, so they have set that as a threshold for now.]
Unlike the early stages of the 2015 wooden box landmine incident, when North Korea's National Defense Commission Policy Department stepped forward first, it is also notable that this time, Kim Yo-jong, the sister of top leader Kim Jong-un, directly issued the statement.
This appears to be a calculated move to pressure the political judgment of Cheong Wa Dae while avoiding the escalation of the situation that could arise from a confrontation between military authorities.
There is also analysis that it was done with relations with the United States in mind.
[Yang Moo-jin / Chair Professor at University of North Korean Studies: It also carries an indirect message hoping that (this incident) will not escalate further on the path toward North Korea-U.S. dialogue.]
Kim Yo-jong also issued a threat that if sovereignty violations continue, South Korea will face "a situation never experienced before," which some analysts view as an implied threat to deploy tactical nuclear warheads in areas north of the Military Demarcation Line.
▶ Kim Yo-jong Breaks Silence After 9 Days: "A Clear Fabrication... Retaliation If Live Fire Occurs"
Video by Jung Sunghoon
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