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Germany's Far-Right AfD Wins Landslide in Eastern State Election, But Path to Power Remains Uncertain


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▲ An election counting event for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is held in Magdeburg, eastern Germany, on the 6th.

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party won a landslide victory with over 40 percent of the vote in the state parliamentary election held in Saxony-Anhalt, eastern Germany, on the 6th (local time).

However, the party failed to secure a majority of seats, leaving it uncertain whether it will successfully take power in a state government for the first time since its founding.

According to the Saxony-Anhalt State Electoral Commission, the final vote count showed the AfD winning 43.8 percent, surpassing the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU, 17.2 percent) to secure its position as the largest party.

The center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) received 9.3 percent, the Greens 8.9 percent, and the Left Party 8.6 percent.

The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a radical left faction seen as a successor to the former communist party, crossed the 5 percent threshold required for seat allocation with 5.3 percent.

The pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP) failed to enter parliament with 2.6 percent of the vote.

The AfD's vote share more than doubled from the 20.8 percent it recorded in the previous Saxony-Anhalt state election in 2021.

This marks the highest vote share the party has ever achieved in either state or federal parliamentary elections since its inception.

Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD's candidate for state premier in Saxony-Anhalt, declared that they "wrote history" and stated that the election results "are also a signal sent to Berlin."

However, because the AfD failed to secure a majority of seats, whether it will take power remains unknown.

Provisional counts indicate that the AfD secured 39 out of a total 83 seats, while the CDU won 15, the SPD, Greens, and Left Party 8 each, and the BSW 5.

As a result, the BSW has emerged as a kingmaker, having expressed willingness to ally with the AfD—unlike other parties such as the CDU, which uphold a strict "firewall" principle.

The BSW, which traces its roots back to the former East German communist party, shares common ground with the AfD on hardline anti-immigration policies and a conciliatory stance toward Russia, while remaining skeptical of other parties' firewall policies against cooperating with far-right parties.

It remains unclear whether a coalition between the two parties on opposite political extremes will ultimately materialize.

AfD co-leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla stated that they are open to coalition negotiations.

On the other hand, candidate Siegmund maintained that he would only take power if a stable single-party government could be formed, revealing differing opinions within the party.

Amira Mohamed Ali, co-leader of the BSW, has instead argued for electing a "non-partisan" state premier rather than Siegmund.

Local media outlets view the possibility of forming a minority government—where seats fall short of a legislative majority—as high.

The AfD could potentially form a minority government and seek cooperation from other parties on a case-by-case basis.

Alternatively, the CDU could spearhead the formation of an "anti-AfD" minority government.

However, the possibility remains low as the CDU maintains a central party stance against cooperating with either the BSW or the Left Party.

Former East German states have struggled to form stable governments in recent years while attempting to exclude the AfD, which has significantly increased its seat count.

Saxony and Thuringia are already being run by minority governments led by the CDU.

If coalition building and the election of a premier fail, parliament could be dissolved and a new election called.

Following the release of exit polls the previous day, Siegmund hinted at his lingering ambitions for an outright majority government, stating, "If we hold the election again, we could win 50 or 55 percent."

The AfD has promised ▲ the deportation of illegal immigrants, ▲ mandatory labor for asylum seekers, ▲ reduced support for Ukrainian refugees, ▲ strengthened patriotic education including flying the German flag, and ▲ reduced funding for public broadcasting.

It has also put forward controversial pledges that could potentially violate the constitution, such as creating "voluntary citizen patrols" to maintain public order and separating classrooms for students from refugee families.

Candidate Siegmund, aged 35 this year, has emerged as a core figure of the AfD, driving the party's surge and leading nationwide approval ratings.

Once a member of the CDU, he is credited with captivating younger generations through social media and older voters with his relatively neat and friendly appearance.

Within the party, he has been praised as "everyone's sweetheart" and the "type mothers-in-law love."

However, he is embroiled in controversy for having attended a 2023 meeting of German-speaking far-right figures that discussed the mass deportation of immigrants—a meeting that sparked debates over banning the AfD—while one of his aides reportedly has ties to a neo-Nazi group banned by the Federal Constitutional Court.

The weekly magazine Der Spiegel called him "the most dangerous man in Germany."

Saxony-Anhalt has a population of 2.12 million and 1.69 million eligible voters, making it the 6th smallest among Germany's 16 states.

The AfD has long maintained former East German regions like Saxony-Anhalt, which lag behind western Germany economically and have smaller immigrant populations, as its stronghold.

Promoting hardline anti-immigration policies and a reinforced German national identity, the AfD has won a handful of mayoral seats in small local municipalities since its founding in 2013, but has never held power in a state government.

This election drew intense attention due to the possibility of a far-right regional government taking office in Germany for the first time in roughly 80 years since the fall of the Nazi regime.

Voter turnout reached 77.8 percent, recording the highest level for a Saxony-Anhalt state parliamentary election since German reunification.

Voter turnout during the 2021 state election was 60.3 percent.

On the 20th of this month, another state parliamentary election is scheduled in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, a former East German region where the AfD enjoys close to 40 percent support.

(Photo: AP, Yonhap News)

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