"Possibility of US-North Korea Summit in Nov-Dec... Kim Jong-un Could Be Invited to G20 in Florida"

▲ US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un

Projections have been raised that a summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un could take place as early as November to December of this year.

Speaking on the 3rd local time at a seminar hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a think tank in Washington, D.C., former US Forces Korea Commander Vincent Brooks emphasized, "We need to recognize that signals are constantly being sent (from North Korea)."

He analyzed that because North Korea has not used the "insulting expressions" directed at South Korea against the United States, it has "kept the door open" for dialogue, while the absence of other signals indicating readiness to talk suggests a current status of "not being ready."

Former Commander Brooks projected that "both sides (the US and North Korea) will want to create contact points this fall, and after that, have an opportunity to hold substantive follow-up discussions."

He anticipated that the period between November, when the US midterm elections are held, and December, when the Group of 20 (G20) Summit takes place in the US, is "the earliest possible timeframe" for a US-North Korea summit.

However, noting that the earlier a summit is held, the more likely it is to be a "show," whereas later summits are more likely to contain substantive content, he said, "It is more likely to happen after both events (the midterms and the G20 meeting) have passed."

Former Commander Brooks stated, "I do not agree with the argument that North Korea's denuclearization is impossible," arguing that denuclearization is not impossible if North Korea can "exchange one form of security guarantee (nuclear armament) for another."

Victor Cha, Korea Chair at CSIS, also diagnosed that "while North Korea's reactions so far have not been positive, they are conditional at the same time," noting that remarks by Kim Jong-un's sister, Kim Yo-jong, "play the usual hardline role while still keeping the door open."

Cha predicted, "From North Korea's perspective, the (Trump) president is likely to become weaker after the November midterm elections, so they will think their leverage will be stronger afterward," adding, "North Korea will definitely wait for the midterm election results before talks."

Cha also forecasted that President Trump could plan an event inviting Chairman Kim to the G20 Summit hosted in the United States.

This year's G20 Summit is scheduled to be held from December 14 to 15 at the Trump National Doral Miami resort in Florida.

He said it is possible to imagine "a situation where Trump invites North Korea to the G20," adding, "If that happens, it would be an event that draws global attention while the US is hosting the G20."

Cha analyzed that although many observers predict North Korea will not respond to talks—pointing out that the US-North Korea summits during Trump's first term ended without achievements and that, unlike back then, North Korea now has the backing of China and Russia—North Korea still has sufficient incentives to come to the table.

He further pointed out, "Meeting with the US can improve North Korea's standing vis-à-vis both China and Russia by demonstrating that they have an active hedge, an alternative relationship."

"North Korea has watched what the US did in Iran and Venezuela, and potentially what it might do in Cuba," he said, adding, "For North Korea, maintaining some form of contact point with the (Trump) president makes sense to minimize the possibility of such things happening to them."

Cha also argued that South Korea's pursuit of nuclear-powered submarines and nuclear material enrichment and reprocessing could provide the momentum for North Korea to engage in dialogue with the US.

Refuting the interpretation that President Trump's recent unilateral scaling back of South Korea-US joint exercises was a pre-emptive "concession" to pave the way for US-North Korea talks, he stated that it was dimensioned as a "(US) corresponding measure" to the fact that North Korea has not conducted nuclear tests or long-range ballistic missile tests since the launch of the second Trump administration.

On the other hand, while former Commander Brooks noted that scaling back South Korea-US exercises is effective in opening the door to US-North Korea dialogue, he pointed out that reducing drills is "a tremendously disrespectful act toward the alliance" and undermines military readiness, US security commitments, and deterrence against North Korea, China, and Russia.

He added, "That is why next week's scheduled trilateral exercise between South Korea, Japan, and the United States (Freedom Edge) is particularly important. It is critically important that the exercise is not canceled."

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