Will they actually meet? For now, U.S. President Donald Trump's words are as follows.
[Donald Trump / U.S. President: (Are you planning to meet Chairman Kim later this year?) Yes, I am.]
We should also hear what North Korea has to say. Kim Yo-jong, Department Director of the Workers' Party of Korea and sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, issued a statement, and it is subtle. She stated, "I know nothing about the communications between the leaders of the North and the U.S.," and added, "Perhaps it is the only matter I am unaware of." At the same time, she mentioned, "The relationship between the two leaders is as wonderful as thought." There is plenty of room for interpretation. It is likely intentional. Let's break it down one by one.
1. Trump Facing Desperation Ahead of November Midterms
First, Trump's will for a North Korea-U.S. summit is strong. Above all, there are only about 70 days left until the midterm elections on November 3. The mood in the U.S. is dominated by forecasts that "it will not be easy for the ruling Republican Party to win" and that "the Democratic Party will take the majority, especially in the House elections." If he loses the midterm elections, it will become practically difficult for Trump to run state affairs as he pleases for the remaining two years. Naturally, he would hate that. However, he is bogged down by the war with Iran. He spent money as expected, failed to secure victory, and hasn't even been able to bring up the topic of denuclearization
. On top of that, with the Strait of Hormuz blocked, international criticism is widespread, and oil prices have surged. As of this month, the U.S. national average gasoline price is around $4.08 to $4.1 per gallon. Right before the outbreak of the war with Iran, the average was $2.98. That is an increase of nearly 40%. In the U.S., where people cannot go anywhere without a car, gasoline prices serve as the most intuitive indicator for gauging economic conditions.
2. Trump's "Security Blanket" Upends Political Circles with a Glamorous "Inner Circle" Aide
There are also various other noises. The national debt has exceeded $40 trillion for the first time. Recently, there was the so-called "switching planes" incident, which sparked yet another controversy. This was due to Natalie Harp, an aide and former TV anchor favored by Trump, who boarded the same flight. Known for printing articles for Trump to read and even being involved in drafting social media messages, she has earned nicknames like "gatekeeper power" and "shadow advisor." The New York Times reported that Trump calls Harp "Sweetie" and sarcastically referred to her as "Trump's security blanket." Recently, rumors even surfaced that Harp influenced the resignation of White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt. The controversy expanded further as Trump reacted sensitively to related questions from reporters.
[Donald Trump / U.S. President: Fake news! You are fake news. You are loud and obnoxious. Fake news, quiet down. Quiet down!]
3. Trump at "Lowest Approval Rating"... Is the Breakthrough a "North Korea-U.S. Summit"?
Trump's recent approval rating hit 33%, the lowest of his second term. Therefore, Trump needs a new event. That the North Korea-U.S. summit is that event is a common analysis among U.S. media and experts. Talk is now emerging about holding a summit with the APEC meeting in Shenzhen, China in November, and if the summit is finalized ahead of the midterm elections, it could be used as a momentum booster to rebound approval ratings. From Trump's perspective, how many cards does he have to throw until election day? Some even analyze that he might pull the schedule forward to October, just before the midterm elections, staging a so-called "October Surprise" event. Showing just how desperate he is, Trump mentioned a specific number for the first time, claiming that North Korea possesses 57 nuclear weapons.
[Donald Trump / U.S. President: Chairman Kim has 57 very powerful nuclear weapons. That should never have been allowed to happen in the first place. It is something that should never have been permitted. If I had been president, that wouldn't have happened. But anyway, he got his hands on them.]
He avoided answering when asked whether he would pursue North Korea's denuclearization.
[Donald Trump / U.S. President: Well, I don't want to talk about that, but as you know, I have a good relationship with Kim Jong-un.]
Why is this important? Because it can be interpreted as a message that Trump might recognize North Korea as a nuclear-armed state in order to meet Kim Jong-un. The official U.S. position is the "denuclearization of North Korea." This still remains unchanged. However, North Korea drew a line early on, stating, "There will never be any discussions on denuclearization." Therefore, the speculation is that to meet Kim Jong-un, Trump might acknowledge the reality of North Korea's nuclear possession, eliminate only the ICBM threat to ensure the safety of the U.S. mainland, and then claim that he "eliminated the North Korean nuclear threat." Of course, some analyze that this would not be easy in practice because if Trump recognizes North Korea as a nuclear-armed state, the global non-proliferation regime would collapse. Former White House National Security Advisor John Bolton, a key figure behind the "Hanoi no-deal," criticized, "North Korea's threat is growing with Trump's help," and added, "If attention doesn't shift from North Korea to something else, Trump's next social media post might be 'Flying to Pyongyang'." U.S. media outlets are currently even using expressions like "Trump is clinging to Kim Jong-un." Predictions are also being raised that Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit the U.S. next month, and Trump will ask Xi for help at that time. Previously, even after the "no-deal" at the Hanoi North Korea-U.S. summit in February 2019, Trump met Chairman Kim at Panmunjom four months later. I was at the scene in Panmunjom back then, and there were dozens of U.S. reporters following along. It was a meeting without substance, but the box-office excitement was blockbuster-level. Trump has effectively shown that if necessary, he can meet even without results.
4. Is "Kim Jong-un" Ultimately the Variable?
Above all, the crucial point is that North Korea in 2026 is vastly different from 2018 and 2019, when the first and second North Korea-U.S. summits were held. The framework has completely changed. In 2018 and 2019, China and Russia at least participated in international sanctions. Now, through participation in the Russia-Ukraine war and Xi Jinping's visit to Pyongyang, they have solidified the North Korea-Russia-China alliance. The economy has also improved significantly compared to the past. From Kim Jong-un's perspective, it would be better to leave a little room as he is doing now and watch what more Trump will offer. He might demand fundamental solutions to anti-North Korea hostile policies, such as the suspension of South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises along with the recognition of a nuclear-armed state. Depending on the situation, while offering moderate lip service, he could wait and see the results of the U.S. midterm elections, and if Trump does not become a lame duck, the possibility of a meeting then cannot be ruled out. After all, the one in a hurry is not them, but Trump. The ball is now in Pyongyang's court, not Washington's, and time appears to be on Chairman Kim Jong-un's side.
(Reported by Jeon Byeong-nam | Produced by Shin Hee-sook | Video by Oh Jung-shik | Video Editing by Ahn Jun-hyeok | Graphics by Yook Do-hyun | Produced by SBS Digital News)
※
Copying, redistribution, and unauthorized use in AI training are strictly prohibited.