▲ Strait of Hormuz
Analysts suggest that Iran is taking a gamble against the United States to maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz.
The strategy is reportedly based on the calculation that U.S. President Donald Trump will be forced to back down due to economic and political pressure, a move that is heightening the risk of a return to full-scale war.
According to foreign media reports on July 13 (local time), Iran recently declared the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, its most powerful leverage, amid ongoing clashes with the U.S.
Furthermore, Iran has launched missile and drone attacks against neighboring countries that host U.S. military bases, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Qatar, and Oman.
This is interpreted as a determination to secure control of the Strait of Hormuz at any cost.
Iran has reacted with extreme sensitivity to any weakening of its control, including attacking vessels attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz along routes proposed by the U.S.
Ultimately, such actions have invited U.S. retaliation, leading to the current situation where the ceasefire agreement has effectively collapsed.
Although the U.S. and Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on June 17 to observe a 60-day ceasefire and hold follow-up negotiations, they are currently engaged in physical clashes, leaving even the schedule for further talks uncertain.
Sanam Vakil, Director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at the British think tank Chatham House, pointed out to the Financial Times (FT) that "the Iranian leadership is engaging in a dangerous gamble for its own survival and the maintenance of its vested interests."
She analyzed, "Iran calculates that President Trump is inherently averse to the risks of war, and that they can endure this level of low-intensity conflict to wear the U.S. down."
It is true that President Trump is facing difficulties in gaining voter support ahead of the U.S. midterm elections this November, partly due to inflation caused by the tightening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Nevertheless, it remains uncertain whether President Trump will back down due to Iran's re-closure of the Strait.
President Trump has reportedly expressed fatigue over the stalled negotiations and was angered after receiving intelligence from Israel that Iran was attempting to assassinate him.
The fact that control over the Strait of Hormuz itself has become a non-negotiable, top-tier issue is another factor increasing the risk of a return to full-scale war through a hardline standoff.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade passed before the war, has established itself as a nuclear-level deterrent and negotiation leverage for Iran.
Having confirmed in practice that they possess a means to shake the global economy at any time, Iran is obsessed with securing control, while the U.S. is in a position where it can never allow this.
There is a prevailing opinion that diplomatic compromise will not be easy for the U.S. and Iran, who are locked in a standoff with no common ground.
In a statement on this day, the Iranian Foreign Ministry condemned the U.S., saying, "The barbaric attacks (by the U.S. military) are not only a serious violation of the basic principles of the UN Charter but also a grave threat to international peace and security," adding that "all diplomatic efforts over the past several months to de-escalate tensions and build peace in the West Asian region have come to nothing."
Experts believe that Iran's attitude is closely related to the new regime that emerged after the war with the U.S. and Israel.
Mojtaba Khamenei, who ascended to the position of Supreme Leader following the death of his father, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, in U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, the first day of the war, vowed full-scale retaliation in a statement, saying, "We will carry out revenge for the blood of all those who were martyred during the war."
The Iranian regime has used the funeral of Ayatollah Khamenei, held over the past week, as a propaganda venue to demonstrate the cohesion of the regime and stoke hostility toward the U.S. and Israel.
Currently, high-level dialogue between the U.S. and Iran has been completely suspended.
Although U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf held high-level talks in Switzerland on June 21, follow-up negotiations have been left drifting indefinitely due to the overlap of Ayatollah Khamenei's funeral schedule and the clashes surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.
The Joint Maritime Information Centre (JMIC), a multinational body that assesses maritime risks, warned that while the southern route supported by the U.S. military remains open despite Iran's declaration of closure, the threat level for that route is at a "critical" stage.
Vakil noted, "We are not back to full-scale war yet, but there is a risk that the situation could spiral out of control."
She emphasized, "The Khamenei era was characterized by solid power and calculated actions, but the new leadership is an untested force," adding, "They are not the Iran of the past, but a new Iran."
(Photo: Yonhap News)
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