▲ China test-fires a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) with a range of 10,000 km
Chinese state media has claimed that the Chinese Navy's test launch of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) in the high seas of the Pacific Ocean guarantees peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region.
Conversely, defense experts in Taiwan have analyzed that China conducted the missile launch with the goal of strengthening its nuclear deterrence against the United States, suggesting it could indirectly create new burdens for U.S. intervention in the defense of Taiwan.
On July 7, the Global Times, an English-language newspaper affiliated with the People's Daily, the official organ of the Chinese Communist Party, argued in a commentary that "the success of this strategic missile test launch not only demonstrates to the world China's will and ability to safeguard its national sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity, but also provides a strong guarantee for peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region."
The Chinese military announced the previous day that one of its naval strategic nuclear submarines had successfully launched one submarine-launched strategic missile carrying a mock training warhead into the high seas of the Pacific Ocean.
While the missile's specifications were not disclosed, the Global Times' Chinese-language edition, Huanqiu Shibao, cited military experts as saying it is highly likely to be the Ju Lang-3, a third-generation SLBM with a range of over 10,000 km.
The Global Times emphasized that "the stronger China's second-strike nuclear capability becomes, the greater its role in nuclear deterrence," adding that "this is a fundamental means to counter nuclear deterrence and nuclear blackmail by certain countries, and an important link in preventing nuclear war."
The media outlet specifically highlighted that China had notified relevant countries of the launch plan in advance of the strategic weapon test, self-assessing it as "a goodwill measure taken to preemptively reduce the risk of misjudgment, and a rational and legitimate action that fully demonstrates the sense of responsibility of a major power."
The editorial also indirectly justified the missile test by mentioning the United States' moves to build multilateral security organizations such as AUKUS (the security partnership between the U.S., U.K., and Australia) and Japan's "neo-militarism."
It further asserted, "The risk of regional conflict is rising in the Taiwan Strait due to collusion between external forces and 'Taiwan independence' forces, and in the South China Sea, extra-regional countries are inciting maritime disputes by conducting reconnaissance and patrol activities," adding that "we will make external forces and their followers abandon attempts to force concessions from China through military pressure and preemptive strikes."
Regarding concerns expressed by some countries, including Australia, New Zealand, and Japan, over China's missile test, the media viewed that the current expressions of dissatisfaction were mostly limited to the level of working-level officials, and that the intensity was significantly lower than when China test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) into the high seas of the Pacific Ocean in September 2024.
It further insisted, "This shows that China's actions are beyond reproach and that China's peaceful path over the past few years has gained the trust of the international community," adding, "Whether they are those with ulterior motives or those feeling pangs of conscience, they will eventually have to accept and get used to this situation."
In Taiwan, experts have raised analyses that China's SLBM test launch is aimed at the United States, which could intervene in the event of a contingency across the Taiwan Strait.
Lin Ying-yu, a professor at Tamkang University in Taiwan, explained, "The missile will not be used to directly attack Taiwan," adding, "The main purpose is to build nuclear deterrence against the U.S., which will make the U.S. reconsider its future intervention in the Taiwan Strait."
Su Tzu-yun, director of the Division of Defense Strategy and Resources at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research in Taiwan, mentioned the possibility that the missile used in the test launch was the JL-3, which puts the U.S. mainland within range, and diagnosed that China is expecting a highly credible deterrent effect.
Regarding the missile, Su explained, "It is difficult to attack Taiwan with a nuclear warhead because it could contaminate its own coast, but it can more strongly demonstrate the will to hinder U.S. defense of Taiwan," adding that this test launch could create new obstacles for joint U.S.-Taiwan defense.
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