▲ Cargo ships anchored in the Strait of Hormuz
Although the United States and Iran have signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to end hostilities, a state-run research institute has analyzed that the repercussions of the Middle East conflict will persist for a considerable period.
The outlook suggests that even with the resumption of passage through the Strait of Hormuz, the already surged logistics and insurance costs will not easily decline, and the recovery of domestic industries will exhibit a K-shaped polarization, differing significantly by sector.
The Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade (KIET) released a report today (July 2) titled "Hormuz Risk After the U.S.-Iran Ceasefire: Impact on Korean Industry and Response Directions," which contains these findings.
According to the report, the energy price shock caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is estimated to have increased domestic manufacturing production costs by approximately 4.7%.
The analysis indicates that this crisis had a greater destructive impact than past oil shocks, as it was a "complex supply chain shock" that simultaneously paralyzed the supply chains for industrial raw materials such as naphtha, urea, and sulfuric acid, in addition to crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG).
The report projected that it would be difficult to return to the pre-war cost structure in the short term.
This is because resolving key issues, such as the lifting of sanctions on Iran and the handling of its nuclear program, will not be easy, and physical normalization, including mine clearance in the strait and clearing the backlog of waiting vessels, will take a significant amount of time.
In particular, the report noted that the sharply increased war risk insurance premiums, freight rates, and transit costs are highly rigid downward, making it likely that they will become entrenched as a new cost baseline even after the end of the conflict.
The report predicted that the post-war recovery of domestic industries will show a K-shaped polarization depending on their ability to pass on costs and secure new demand.
The shipbuilding industry is expected to see a series of orders for high-value-added LNG carriers and small-to-medium-sized tankers due to the diversification of global energy supply lines.
The defense industry is expected to gain momentum in the export of mid-tier air defense systems, aligning with the trend of Gulf nations building independent air defense networks.
The semiconductor industry is also expected to see a boost in demand for memory and HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) as Middle Eastern countries resume investments in artificial intelligence (AI) data centers.
The construction sector may find selective order opportunities in post-war reconstruction projects, which are estimated to be worth up to 58 billion dollars.
On the other hand, the petrochemical industry faces an emergency in securing margins as the issue of oversupply from China, which had been obscured during the blockade, resurfaces.
The automotive industry is also expected to see a slow recovery due to a combination of factors, including slowing demand in advanced markets, the burden of high oil prices and tariffs, and weakened consumer sentiment.
(Photo: AP, Yonhap News)
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