Netanyahu's Gamble: Being 'Passed Over' Even by the U.S.

00:00 "Netanyahu is in a panic!"

02:58 Why was Israel excluded?

04:06 The Lebanon buffer zone: Why Netanyahu cannot give it up

05:23 Israel as the biggest variable in negotiations: What will happen?

1. "Netanyahu is in a panic!"

I am currently in Switzerland. I would like to talk about Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Local reports suggest that Prime Minister Netanyahu is in a state of panic and has been deeply shocked. It may seem puzzling that Netanyahu, who did not seem significantly shaken even after more than 70,000 people lost their lives in Gaza due to Israeli attacks, is now in a panic, but the reason lies with the United States and Iran. The two countries, which are negotiating the details of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to end the war, met here in Switzerland last weekend. In their first meeting, both sides agreed to establish a "de-confliction cell" to resolve the conflict between Israel and Lebanon. Iran has set several strict conditions for the nuclear disarmament negotiations that the U.S. desires, including the lifting of economic sanctions, permission for Iranian oil exports, and a permanent halt to attacks on Iranian territory. Another condition added to this is a halt to Israel's attacks on Lebanon—not just a temporary halt, but a permanent one. That is Article 1 of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding to end the war. Despite it being listed as the most important point in Article 1, Israel continued to attack Lebanon even after President Trump signed the agreement. As everyone knows, this was an attack on Hezbollah, which resulted in dozens of casualties. Iran has raised this issue, postponing the meeting scheduled for last week by questioning how negotiations could proceed when even Article 1 is not being upheld. The Trump administration, facing a barrage of criticism asking why this war was even fought, wants to secure at least one nuclear disarmament deal and wrap things up as much as possible before the midterm elections in the fall. Therefore, Vice President J.D. Vance even issued a warning last week, telling Israel to "get its act together."

[J.D. Vance / U.S. Vice President: People in Israel who think President Trump is the problem need to get their act together and realize the reality that Israel is facing.]

While Trump is known for his blunt language, it is highly unusual and awkward for a Vice President to tell Israel—a country that was marching alongside them toward Iran just two months ago—to "get its act together." Nevertheless, Israel remains steadfast in its intention to continue its presence in Lebanon and to keep attacking if necessary. Consequently, a consensus has emerged among the U.S. and Iran, even before they began full-scale negotiations on the nuclear issue, that they must first resolve the situation with Israel. The purpose of the de-confliction cell is to bring the parties involved together to discuss and prevent clashes between Israel and Lebanon. Who is in this organization? The U.S. is in it, as are Iran, the mediating countries of Pakistan and Qatar, and the party directly involved, Lebanon. However, Israel is excluded from this group.

2. Why was Israel excluded?

Israel, the actual party involved in the hostilities, has been excluded from the de-confliction cell. Why did this happen? Simply put, Israel has been defined as a "conflict-instigating nation" and a "peace-obstructing nation." Israel claims it is attacking Hezbollah as an exercise of its right to self-defense. They say, "We are also suffering from Hezbollah's attacks." Indeed, their soldiers have died, and they have been targeted by drone attacks. However, this is effectively labeling Israel as the main culprit violating the ceasefire between the two countries. You can think of it this way: a military clash occurs in Lebanon. In this situation, the de-confliction cell, without Israel, calls in the Lebanese representative to ask, "What happened here?" and "What did Israel do?" before reaching a conclusion. While they may listen to Israel's opinion, Iran, Pakistan, Qatar, Lebanon, and even the U.S. are unlikely to give much weight to what Israel says. Returning to the beginning, this is why reports are emerging locally that "Netanyahu is in a panic" and "deeply shocked."

3. The Lebanon buffer zone: Why Netanyahu cannot give it up

Netanyahu, who encouraged Trump to go to war, is not going to sit idly by. Trump is in a hurry due to the midterm elections, but Netanyahu also faces a general election in November. Netanyahu, who is even on trial for corruption charges, cannot guarantee his future if he loses the general election. Furthermore, although war fatigue has built up significantly within Israel, public opinion remains strong regarding the Lebanon issue. Southern Lebanon, where Hezbollah exerts influence, borders Israel. This area was originally a buffer zone, similar to a demilitarized zone, until 2000. Netanyahu's idea is to restore that buffer zone using the Iran war as an excuse, and polls show that more than half of the public supports this. Additionally, other polls indicate that only a little over 10% of Israelis believe Israel won the Iran war. Therefore, Netanyahu cannot give up on securing the Lebanon buffer zone, which still has some level of support. Given this situation, even though it is reported that Trump threatened him by saying he would have been in prison if not for him, Netanyahu is holding his ground, insisting he cannot withdraw his troops.

4. Israel as the biggest variable in negotiations: What will happen?

Israel has become the biggest variable in the U.S.-Iran negotiation phase, and there is speculation that Israel could potentially join the de-confliction cell later. However, Iran always forfeits when it is matched against Israel in international sports events; they do not view them as a dialogue partner. If Israel were to join the de-confliction cell, Iran would likely withdraw. Ultimately, Israel, isolated and being passed over, has become a wild card whose next move is unpredictable. Conversely, Israel also holds leverage that could hinder U.S.-Iran negotiations. There are reports that Israel is using this to conduct diplomatic maneuvers against the U.S. Netanyahu will likely not step down until he secures something that can appease domestic public opinion in Israel and help him win the general election, but there is no clear solution at the moment. While there is discussion about the Lebanese government army, rather than Israel or Hezbollah, securing the buffer zone, it is uncertain whether Netanyahu would be satisfied with that. For now, Netanyahu has become a completely unpredictable factor, which makes the 60-day window for U.S.-Iran negotiations feel all the more precarious.

Reported by Kwon Young-in | Produced by Shin Hee-sook | Video by Kim Si-nae | Video Editing by Na Hong-hee | Graphics by Yook Do-hyun | Produced by SBS Digital News

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